The second installment of this three-game series gets underway Saturday evening with the NL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs.
Arizona fended off a late Chicago comeback on Friday with a 6-4 victory at Chase Field.
Will the Diamondbacks secure the win once again, or can the Cubs even up the series? Find out in our free MLB picks for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks on Saturday, September 16.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks predictions
Right-hander Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs and should be a good fade candidate. Through 21 starts this season, Hendricks is 6-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Those are certainly not the worst surface-level stats in the world, but his 4.08 xERA and .269 xBA suggest that further regression could be looming. Hendricks also ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in both whiff rate and K%, and that is the avenue in which we will fade the right-hander on Saturday. He gives up a lot of contact, which always makes him a volatile option.
Every game is crucial for Arizona, a team that currently holds the tiebreaker over the Cincinnati Reds for the final spot in the NL wild-card race. Hitting has been the number one factor for success this year for the Diamondbacks as they rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, and slugging.
Perhaps this lineup’s biggest advantage in the hitting department is its ability to avoid strikeouts, ranking fifth in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 21 this season.
This strikeout avoidance is likely to continue against Hendricks, a pitcher who doesn't miss many bats to speak of and whose 16.4% strikeout rate ranks among the 10 lowest in MLB among those with at least 120 innings pitched this season.
My best bet: Kyle Hendricks Under 3.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay
Kyle Hendricks Under 3.5 strikeouts
Over 9
Diamondbacks moneyline
While Hendricks is likely to struggle against Arizona, D-backs right-hander Zach Davies should also not be trusted. Through 16 starts, Davies is 2-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also terrible, ranking in the 29th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Additionally, both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, AVG, and SLG.
In a coin-flip game, I would play the matchups and back the home team in what is likely to be a high-scoring affair.
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Cubs vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as a slight –120 favorite and have since been bet down to their current price of -110. This small line movement is not that surprising given Davies’ history against Chicago and Hendricks’ poor track record against the Diamondbacks in an otherwise relatively even matchup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.5 and has since been bet down to nine. The market is respecting Davies’ improved performance since returning to the rotation after missing over a month due to lower back inflammation.
In his four starts since returning, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 5.00 ERA. Yes, that is still not good, but it is markedly better than how he was performing prior to the injury.
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Trend to know
Hendricks has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in three of his past five starts against Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
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Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, September 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, ARID |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Hendricks (6-7, 3.71 ERA): It has not been the smoothest sailing for Hendricks, and his 4.08 xERA and .269 xBA suggest that rougher waters are still ahead. He could particularly run into trouble against the DBacks, a team he typically struggles against with a 5.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over his past five starts against them.
Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA): It certainly has not gone well for Davies this season either, and his underlying metrics also suggest that positive regression is unlikely moving forward. The only two reasons for optimism are his strong track record against Chicago and his improved results since returning to the rotation from his back injury.
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