David Peterson's results have improved with the Chicago Cubs, but his underlying numbers remain poor.
I don't think the Chicago Cubs deserve to be -120 favorites with Peterson on the mound, and my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks on Monday, July 27, reflect that.
Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: St. Louis Cardinals (+100)
David Peterson owns a 5.57 ERA, 5.60 SIERA, and 12.6 K% over the last 30 days. He is in horrendous form.
The St. Louis Cardinals have not hit lefties consistently of late, but I’m not sure it matters. They faced Peterson twice recently and combined for 16 runs while knocking him out before completing four innings on both occasions.
Matthew Liberatore has started pitching a little better, conceding three runs or fewer in three of his past four starts — including against the Chicago Cubs.
Back the Cardinals to -110.
COVERS INTEL: Peterson sits at the 19th percentile in K%, playing into the hands of a Cardinals lineup with the second-lowest K% vs. lefties.
Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
Opponents are hammering Peterson to the tune of a 44.1% hard-hit rate over the last month, which is the second-highest output among today’s starting pitchers.
Peterson is having a miserable time striking batters out, and the Cardinals excel in avoiding punchouts, making a perfect storm for plenty of good contact.
Liberatore’s 30.2% line-drive rate the past 30 days is alarmingly bad, and doesn’t bode well for his chances of slowing down a Cubs offense sitting in the Top 10 vs. lefties during that stretch.
Bet the Over to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 63-55, -4.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 64-49-5, +6.79 units
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
Temperatures are expected to approach 100 with slight winds blowing out.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -120 | Cardinals +100
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+130) | Cardinals +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
Chicago has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of the last 30 games (+4.85 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Monday, July 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network, Cardinals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | David Peterson (5-7, 5.97 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (5-7, 5.18 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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