The fourth and final game of this NL Central series gets underway Sunday with the fifth-place St. Louis Cardinals hosting the third-place Chicago Cubs.
Chicago looks to complete the sweep after winning each of the first three games by a combined score of 18-6.
Will the Cubs take care of business once again, or can the Cardinals end the series on a high note? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Cardinals on Sunday, July 30.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
Left-hander Steven Matz is slated to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 22 appearances, Matz is 1-7 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Beyond that, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely. The left-hander ranks in the 47th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and xBA.
Specifically, we’re going to fade Matz in the strikeout department. Entering Sunday, he ranks in the 44th percentile or lower in both K% and chase rate.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 at FanDuel while 4.5 seems to be the prevailing number elsewhere. While the Chicago Cubs are a very average team at the plate, there’s reason to believe they can avoid the punch out against Matz.
Though Matz has returned to the rotation, poor performance found him pitching out of relief for a long stretch from late May through the early part of July. His walk rate is the highest it's been since 2018 and he is striking fewer batters out than he did a year ago.
And, believe it or not, slugger Cody Bellinger ranks tied for fourth among qualified hitters with a 182 wRC+ against left-handers this season despite having the apparent handedness disadvantage. And it's not a crazy small sample size either. He's batting .348 in 104 plate appearances vs. southpaws with seven of his 15 homers coming against them.
If the left-hander endures another poor outing on Sunday, then it would not be shocking if he gets pulled early, making the Under more likely to hit on his strikeout prop.
My best bet: Steven Matz Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 at FanDuel)
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Steven Matz Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
Over 9 (-120)
Cubs moneyline (+120)
This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let’s look at the other two.
While Matz is likely to struggle once again, Chicago also hands the ball to a relatively weak pitcher. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks is 4-4 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 12 starts this season.
While those surface-level stats are very solid, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is likely. Currently, Hendricks ranks in the 52nd percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%.
With that said, he still outpaces Matz across the board. Meanwhile, both teams are solid in the hitting department, ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
St. Louis opened as a –148 favorite and was quickly bet down to its current price of -142. This line movement makes sense considering the public’s mistrust of Matz and the fact that Hendricks is at least slightly better across the board.
However, Hendricks is primed for regression, which brings us to the total. The number opened at nine and has stayed put, which is understandable considering the pitching matchup.
The juice has slightly moved to the Over, but I’d be shocked if it moves to 9.5 before first pitch. Both lineups are good enough to accumulate at least 10 total runs against Matz and Hendricks.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $100 in bonus bets (win or lose)! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
Chicago has won each of the past six meetings between these two clubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, July 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:15p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSMW |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.46 ERA): It has been a solid year for Hendricks in his 10th season with the Cubs. He typically dominates St. Louis, so it will be interesting to see how he fares on Sunday with his underlying metrics having us brace for regression.
Steven Matz (1-7, 4.35 ERA): Regardless of whether he is serving as a starting pitcher or coming out of the bullpen, success has been hard to come by for Matz this season.
