The Atlanta Braves look to continue their hot streak when they host the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.
Chris Sale and Jameson Taillon headline what many expect to be a pitching duel, which is what we got Monday night when the Braves won by a slim 2-0 scoreline. Atlanta hopes to pick up a sixth win in seven games, while Chicago hopes to avoid just their third losing streak of the season.
Find out why we’re backing one of these pitchers to have a strong performance in our MLB picks and Cubs vs. Braves predictions on Tuesday, May 14.
Cubs vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Chris Sale Over 6.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
So far, the Chris Sale trade looks like a stroke of genius for the Atlanta Braves front office. He was expected to be a middle-to-back-end rotation guy, but the injury to Spencer Strider changed things — and he’s picked up the slack.
Sale has posted a 2.95 ERA on the season with a sub-1.00 WHIP, and he’s struck out at least six batters in each of his seven starts this season. The lefty has also recorded at least 15 outs in all seven starts, going six or more innings in four of them. And he’s done this despite facing nearly 80% right-handed hitters.
Only two lineups have managed to strike out fewer than seven times when facing Sale, with the Diamondbacks and Guardians having six each. But Arizona has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, while Cleveland sits eighth.
The Chicago Cubs sit 17th in strikeout rate at 22.9%, and Monday night saw them go down on strikes at a 24.2% clip as they registered eight Ks. Reynaldo Lopez notched four of those in just five frames, not bad for a pitcher ranked in the 73rd percentile in whiff rate and 75th in chase rate.
Sale’s chase rate sits at 97%, and his slider looks as good as it did in his prime. He’s making left-handed hitters look silly, but he’s also punched out 10 hitters this year with backdoor sliders — the most of any starter in the majors — as he’s not afraid to use that wicked movement vs. righties.
But perhaps the biggest reason I love Sale to get 7+ Ks tonight is the fact that only three Chicago hitters have ever seen his stuff. Those three hitters have a combined 32 plate appearances, and 27 of them belong to Yan Gomes — a player hitting at the Mendoza line this season with a strikeout in nearly 40% of his ABs.
DraftKings has Over 6.5 strikeouts priced at -105, which is an outlier given that -115 is the next-best price — which is about the most juice I’d lay on this bet.
Cubs vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Chris Sale Over 6.5 strikeouts
Matt Olson 1+ hits
Under 8.5
Matt Olson had two hits in four at-bats last night and has two hits and a walk in seven career matchups with Jameson Taillon, including a home run. Add in the fact the Cubs have no LHP in the bullpen combined with his .295 career average against the pitchers he would face today, and I’ll back him to make it seven games with a hit out of eight.
Neither of these teams have consistently posted runs, despite their stacked lineups. Taillon has been strong despite a low strikeout rate, and I anticipate he and Sale keeping this thing low-scoring into the later innings. The 2-0 scoreline from Monday night made it seven straight games of seven or fewer runs for the Braves, and that moves to eight here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Cubs vs Braves live odds
Cubs vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +171 | Atlanta -187
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are -190 favorites, with a run line of -1.5 priced at +114. The Braves have won five of Sale’s seven starts, while the Cubs are 4-0 when Taillon pitches this season. Atlanta took a 2-0 victory in the first game of this series.
- The Braves have won six of the last eight meetings, including four straight.
- The total sits at 8 with the Under being slightly favored. Sale’s ERA is under 3.00 while Taillon has posted an ERA of 1.13, more than a run below his xERA.
- Atlanta’s last seven games have all gone Under, with only one of those contests even reaching seven total runs.
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Cubs vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Braves.
Cubs vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSSO |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (3-0, 1.13 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (5-1, 2.95 ERA) |
Cubs vs Braves latest injuries
Cubs vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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