Yankees vs Reds Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight’s MLB Game

It's Max Fried day, and we're going back to our bread and butter with him to record a win. 

The market has adjusted a bit, as you'd be getting a plus-money price on mostly anyone except the bottom dwellers in the majors. However, at -115, we still see a nice edge against our projection of -127. I'll happily take over a 4% edge with our best bet.

The New York Yankees have been struggling, and I mean really struggling. They'll come into tonight facing the prospects of a second sweep in their last three series, with the offensive issues being the biggest story during that stretch.

It's been 15 straight games that New York matchups have gone Under the total, and they've scored 5+ runs just three times in that stretch — quite an achievement for a team that was averaging a notch over 5.5 runs about a month ago. The good thing about this bet? The Yankees don't have to play great to cash it because the Cy Young candidate on the mound has such a good matchup. 

The most straightforward reason you'd expect the Cincinnati Reds to struggle against Fried is some nasty platoon splits. Even though they've improved some in this area, Cincy's offense against left-handed pitching still paints a grim statistical picture. Just look at the numbers: 25th in wRC+ against LHP, 27th in strikeout rate against LHP,  30th in chase rate against LHP, and 26th in hard-hit rate against LHP.

Those last two points feel particularly noteworthy in this matchup. Fried has done two terrific things this season already en route to his near sub-2.00 ERA. One of those is to induce an elite amount of ground balls. He'll come into the day with a ground ball rate of over 53%, which places him in the 90th percentile of baseball.

In addition to that, he's been able to get an above-average rate of chase on his breaking pitches. The sweeper, in particular, has been a substantial chase pitch for him. This lineup will have four players in it with a whiff rate against that pitch that's well above the league average: Elly de La Cruz (47.8%), Christian Encarnacion (44.1%), Jake Fraley (39.6%), and Spencer Steer (32.8%).

With all of this in mind, not only is Fried naturally set up for success because he's a lefty, but he's also set up well because the things he excels at are already weaknesses of the Reds. How can you get a lot of ground balls? Weak contact. How else? Chase outside the zone. Fried will get both today, and there's little reason to think he doesn't use that to his advantage.

On the other hand, I'm banking that even a struggling Yankees offense can manufacture the couple of runs it would take to get the job done. They should have a good path against Brady Singer. 

Singer's modest 4.13 ERA is due for some negative regression, with an expected ERA over half a run higher. Across the board, most metrics are pedestrian, and the one that's most troubling in this matchup is a barrel rate in the Bottom 20th percentile of baseball.

With a healthy Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup, poor barrel metrics are certainly something you don't want to have against even a struggling Yankees offense. That holds even more true at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. I love this spot for Fried to be strong on the mound while grabbing a win.