Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

St. Louis Cardinals righty Erick Fedde has only completed six innings in one of his past seven starts, and he draws a deep Chicago Cubs lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitchers.

On the surface, Fedde has spun it nicely during the highlighted seven-start run with a 3.13 ERA, but his 4.79 xFIP and 39.0% hard-hit rate reinforce he’s likely also overachieved. Additionally, his year-long 3.54 ERA is also below his 4.93 xFIP and alongside a healthy 41.2% hard-hit rate, so statistical correction looms.

In addition to Chicago’s noted punch at the plate, the Cubbies also have an above-average 9.1% walk rate and a .328 on-base percentage against righties. Chicago also put seven on the board during Tuesday’s loss and still has positive regression ahead of its 29th-ranked .259 BABIP during June.

Finally, it’s worth noting that just a single St. Louis reliever has thrown 20 pitches across the past three games, meaning Cards' manager Oliver Marmol has a rested bullpen to turn to.

On top of the already noted strengths of the Chicago offense, the Cubs also pace the majors in wOBA and ISO on the road, and starter Matthew Boyd has been sharp. The lefty has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of 15 starts and two or fewer 11 times.

Cubs first baseman Michael Busch sports an elite .401 wOBA, .262 ISO, and .935 OPS against RHPs and has driven in 44 runs through 73 games for the season. Hitting in the heart of the lineup is a boost for Bucsh's RBI opportunities, too. 

Finally, returning to Fedde, I expect him to serve up multiple free passes to the Cubbies tonight. The righty sports a concerning 3.86 BB/9 and 10.2 BB%, both of which rank eighth highest among the 71 pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this season.