The bases are juiced with all 30 teams taking the diamond today, and I’m here to drive in some winners with my MLB player props for Wednesday, June 25.
And I won’t be the only one driving in runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has some great value in tonight’s game against the Cleveland Guardians, while Julio Rodriguez might be getting overlooked with all the attention Cal Raleigh is getting.
Best MLB player props today
Guerrero Jr. o0.5 RBI (+185)
Soto o1.5 TB (+135)
Rodriguez o1.5 TB (+160)
MLB props for June 25
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+185 at BetMGM)
The Toronto Blue Jays plated 10 runs last night, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t drive in any. That changes when the Blue Jays continue their series with the Cleveland Guardians tonight.
Despite not getting an RBI, Guerrero continues to rake and is coming off another two-hit night. The Blue Jays' star slugger is simply one of the best hitters in the game, ranking in the 100th percentile in expected batting average and the 92nd percentile in expected slugging.
I also like Guerrero’s matchup against Guardians starter Gavin Williams. The 25-year-old right-hander has put on some solid performances this month, but his advanced numbers say he’s been a bit lucky, and a regression could come soon.
Williams’ expected ERA is 4.37, ranking in the 30th percentile. Right-handed hitters have given Williams the most problems, getting to him for a .296 average and an .806 OPS. He also gives out a lot of free passes, ranking in the fifth percentile in walk rate. So, that should mean base runners for Vladdy to drive in.
On top of that, Bo Bichette also has solid numbers against Williams and can get on base ahead of Guerrero.
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
The New York Mets have hit a rough patch, losing nine of their last 10 games, and will try to avoid a third-straight loss to the Atlanta Braves tonight.
Juan Soto will have to step up. Now, the Mets’ slugger isn’t playing poorly. He's hitting .253 with an .867 OPS, 17 home runs, and 43 RBI.
He’s been a little unlucky to this point. Soto ranks in the 99th percentile in expected batting average and expected slugging percentage, while ranking in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Basically, he hits the ball harder and more consistently than almost every other major leaguer. And I like him to put on a show tonight.
That’s because Soto will step in against poor Braves rookie Didier Fuentes, who is making just his second career start. The first didn’t go so great, as the right-hander allowed four runs on six hits over five innings against the Miami Marlins.
Soto will overmatch Fuentes tonight, so give my MLB picks the Over 1.5 total bases for Soto at solid plus money.
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at bet365)
The Big Dumper, Cal Raleigh, is getting all the headlines for the Seattle Mariners, and deservedly so. But it’s also kind of overshadowing the nice little comeback season Julio Rodriguez is having.
J-Rod is hitting .296 with a .728 OPS over his last 27 games, which means he’s been topping 1.5 total bases at a pretty good rate. So, to see the Over at +160 is a little shocking.
Part of the reason for that is the matchup with Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan. The 29-year-old right-hander is having a solid season, pitching to a 3.36 expected ERA. But he’s been hit more consistently lately.
Ryan owns a 4.43 ERA over his last four starts, which is in part due to him battling his command, as he’s surrendered 11 walks during that period.
Ryan has also been giving up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 34th percentile in average exit velocity, the 53rd in hard-hit percentage, and the sixth in barrel percentage.
Then there’s the fact that J-Rod has solid career numbers vs. Ryan, going 4-for-9 with two doubles and a home run. That’s good for a .382 xBA and a .762 xSLG.
The price on J-Rod’s Over 1.5 total bases at +160 is too high, so I’ll be backing him tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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