Cardinals vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Friars Upset Friday?

May 14, 2021 |
Cardinals vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Friars Upset Friday?
The Cardinals are atop the NL Central with a 23-15 record and have won five of their last six games, including a 2-0 victory against the Brewers last night.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals are atop the NL Central with a 23-15 record and have won five of their last six games, including a 2-0 victory against the Brewers last night.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres' injury list is starting to fill up as they get ready to host the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game set Petco Park this weekend. 

The first contest will take place on Friday night and, despite the Padres' injury woes, they opened as -161 favorites against the NL Central-leading Cardinals.  

Here are our best free Cardinals vs. Padres picks and predictions for MLB betting action on Friday, May 14, with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.

Cardinals vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Friday, May 14, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: BSSD

Cardinals vs Padres odds

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

San Diego opened as a -155 favorite at BetMGM Nevada and is out to -185 at 7 p.m. ET, but the betting splits don't fully line up with that move. "All the tickets are on the other side, almost 3/1 tickets on the Cardinals. But money is really close, a little more on the Padres," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said, while noting lopsided play on Padres runline -1.5 (-125). "All the tickets are on the Padres. There's not a single one on the Cardinals +1.5." The total dipped from 7 to 6.5. "Tickets are 3/1 on the Over, but money is really close, a few more dollars on the Under," Shelton said.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cardinals vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Johan Oviedo (0-1, 4.61 ERA): Oviedo's last major league start came nine days ago against the Mets when he allowed four runs through four innings of work.

The 23-year-old right-hander has the size, fastball velocity, and slider to eventually become a good starter in the bigs but needs to find an effective third pitch and improve his command. 

Joe Musgrove (2-4, 3.00 ERA): The veteran right-hander sizzled in April, pitching to a 1.24 ERA with an opponent batting average of .137 across five starts.

But he has struggled in two outings this month and is coming off a start against the Giants where he surrendered eight hits, a pair of homers, and four earned runs through five innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: Paul DeJong SS (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr SS (Out), Jurickson Profar OF (Out), Wil Myers OF (Out), Eric Hosmer 1B (Out), Jorge Mateo SS (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 16-5 in the Padres' last 21 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

The Padres are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Rockies and could find it tough to get on track as half of their starting lineup, including MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr., will be out for an extended period of time due to health and safety protocols. 

The Cardinals are atop the NL Central with a 23-15 record and have won five of their last six games, including a 2-0 victory against the Brewers last night. 

The Cards will send 23-year-old Johan Oviedo to the hill tonight. In three starts this year he was great in his season debut, looked OK in his second game, and was plain bad in his last appearance.

Oviedo isn't the most reliable starter but neither is his San Diego counterpart, Joe Musgrove, who has been lit up for nine earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts. Musgrove looked good in April but he always seems to start his season strong before inevitably fading after the first month or so.  

Although St. Louis ranks a modest 15th in the majors with an OPS of .697, that's still better than the Padres' OPS of .677 which ranks just 22nd. And the Friars will be even less effective at the plate without Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Jurickson Profar. 

With the Padres forced to field a shell of last year's playoff squad and the Cardinals playing well lately, back the road underdogs. 

PREDICTION: ML St. Louis (+140)

Over/Under pick

While we have little faith in the starting pitcher for either team, we have even less faith in the sluggers, especially at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where the Under has cashed in 16 of the last 21 games.

The Cardinals have struggled at the dish lately and have been held to two runs or fewer in five of their previous nine games. 

Meanwhile, the Padres are plating just 3.05 runs per game at home with an OPS of .623, and will now have to get by without some of their best hitters. 

Both squads also have strong bullpens with Cardinals relief pitchers holding opponents to a batting average of just .186 while Padres relievers rank second in the majors with a 2.64 ERA. Take the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 7 (-115)

Cardinals vs Padres betting card

  • ML St. Louis (+140)
  • Under 7 (-115)

Picks made on 5/14/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET

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