It's a classic divisional rivalry matchup for Sunday Night Baseball when the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs wrap up a four-game series.
Miles Mikolas will take the mound tonight for the Cardinals and has looked like someone with his best years behind him at 35. Can he turn back time for one evening against the Cubs? A Chicago team at the bottom of the division certainly hopes not.
Read on for my free Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for August 4.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
This game should be entertaining with two pitchers on the mound who will give up some runs and two evenly-matched teams. However, there's not much value in the total. I priced it at exactly 8.5 and have the Chicago Cubs within five cents of their moneyline as of the early afternoon. With that in mind, I'm forced to head to the MLB player prop market for my best bet.
I've found a strong one in Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases. I project a sizable edge, so I'm making it a two-unit play. Why? Well, Suzuki will have an answer for everything that Miles Mikolas throws at him.
Let's start with Mikolas's most significant trouble spot this season: hard-hit balls or batters simply getting the barrel to the ball against him. He'll enter today with a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 10% of baseball and an even worse barrel rate. This has caused his ERA to soar this season. That's good for Suzuki, who tops the Cubs in hard-hit rate at 50% and is second amongst the Cubs in hard-hit rate at 12.3%.
However, one of the most pressing things here is the pitch mix that Suzuki will see from Mikolas. He's a three-pitch thrower, but no matter what he uses here, he'll have a hard time getting Suzuki out.
If Mikolas goes for a heavy fastball approach, he'll be doing so with the knowledge that Suzuki is third in batting average, second in slugging percentage, and second in hard-hit rate amongst Cubs against such pitches.
The sinker? Suzuki is yet again in the Top 3 in all metrics, including being first overall in hard-hit rate by a wide margin.
Even Mikolas' third-most preferred pitch, the slider, is something that Suzuki has hit well, with the third-best batting average, third-best slugging percentage, and third-best wOBA average among Cubs players facing that pitch.
For Mikolas to get outs against Suzuki, one of three things will have to happen. Mikolas will have to throw some pitches that he doesn't particularly trust (which could lead to all types of varying results), Suzuki will have to be particularly poor, or Mikolas will have to create some swings and whiffs. The last two options haven't happened often this season, and it's hard to imagine them taking place today.
I'm comfortable playing this one down to -138.
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases
Cardinals F5 -0.5
I'm using this spot to take a bit of a gamble in a non-correlated same-game parlay. I'm pairing the St. Louis Cardinals to be leading after five innings with my best bet. I priced St. Louis F5 -0.5 at +168, and I'm getting a price that's 10 cents better — I'm forced to take it here.
For all of Mikolas' issues, he does have the advantage of three of the best four fastball hitters likely being out of the Cubs' lineup today. That gives him a path to having some reasonable success by staying on that fastball throughout.
I have yet to mention Justin Steele, the pitcher who takes the mound for Chicago, but he's had quite an erratic season. Of concern for him today is the Cardinals' ability against left-handed pitching.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs live odds
Cardinals vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-176) | Chicago -1.5 (+146)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +130 | Chicago -154
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cardinals vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a highly competitive series recently. The two teams have split the last 10 games with an even 5-5 record. However, the Cubs have won three of the previous four matchups.
- Despite just a .500 record in its last 10 games, Chicago has been profitable for bettors over that time span with a +1.3 unit average.
- St. Louis has had a rough run over its last 10 games. The Cardinals are 4-6 in their previous 10 games and have lost just over two units of bettors.
- During that timespan, St. Louis has been a great Over team. Eight of its last 10 games have gone that direction. This head-to-head series has seen six of the previous 10 games go Over.
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Cardinals have hit the Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (8-8, 4.99 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (2-5, 3.38 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
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