Cardinals vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Mowing Down a Rival

The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Central matchup Monday evening. The contest is the first of a three-game series between these two struggling clubs.

Will the Cubs defend their home diamond? Or can the Cardinals start to turn things around? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs Cubs on Monday, May 8.

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

Cardinals vs Cubs predictions

Right-hander Miles Mikolas is slated to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he's off to a disastrous start in 2023. Mikolas is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over seven starts.

However, those surface-level stats don't tell the whole story. Mikolas’ true struggles took place over the first couple of outings in 2023, which shouldn't be shocking since he faced the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays, and pitched at Coors Field.

He's now 1-0 with a 3.13 ERA over his past four starts while beginning to rebound recently. The right-hander is averaging 4.75 strikeouts per game over that stretch, and we're going to back him to cash the Over on his strikeout prop in this contest.

Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Mikolas’ unpredictability is why he ranks in the 57th percentile in chase rate this season. He should be able to get plenty of punchouts against the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs revamped their roster while making several key offseason additions, most notably adding Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer. However, that group will only add to the Cubs’ strikeout problem. Chicago ranked 22nd in the league in strikeout percentage in 2022 when facing righties. Swanson, Bellinger, and Mancini all finished with a strikeout percentage north of 23% in 2022.

Now the Cubs predicably rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeout percentage. Looking at Monday’s projected lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a strikeout rate north of 23%.

Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against Mikolas. Through 131 career plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Chicago roster possesses a 22.9 strikeout rate and 25.7 whiff rate.

My best bet: Mikolas Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings)

Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Cardinals’ moneyline in this contest, but I'm not confident enough to pull the trigger. St. Louis ranks 10th in the league or higher in batting average, home runs, and hits per game in 2023.

However, the Cubs also rank in the top 10 in each of those categories. It's been a disastrous start to the season for the Cardinals, who just can't figure out ways to win a ballgame.

One day, their hitting is excellent and their pitching implodes, and then the next the exact opposite happens. St. Louis is a better team than their 11-24 record indicates, and it should turn things around soon.

But I'm staying away from betting on the Cardinals until they start to put it together.

Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

I would also lean toward the Over, but it's still tough to feel confident. While we're backing Mikolas to go Over his strikeout prop, he still could get lit up.

The right-hander has rebounded recently, but his underlying metrics are still a major concern. He ranks in the 13th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.

For Chicago, right-hander Marcus Stroman will take the mound, and he's the main reason I'm staying away from the total. While Stroman’s underlying metrics suggest some regression is looming, he still boasts a 2.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through seven starts in 2023.

Cardinals vs Cubs game info

Cardinals vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Miles Mikolas (1-1, 5.79 ERA): Mikolas has gotten off to a tough start in 2023. However, he's been rebounding recently while giving up just five earned runs over the veteran's past three outings, including holding the San Francisco Giants scoreless over 6 1/3 innings during his last start. His K/9 is also now up to a respectable 8.2, much higher than the 34-year-old's 6.8 in 2022.

Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.18 ERA): Stroman has been producing a strong start to the campaign while boasting a 2.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through seven outings. However, his underlying metrics suggest slight regression is coming from those strong surface-level stats. Currently, Stroman hovers around the 50th percentile in most of the key metrics. Additionally, the right-hander has been struggling against the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his career.

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Opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least five strikeouts in three of the last four games against the Cubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs Cubs

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