This NL Central matchup continues on Saturday evening with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -126 favorite, and justifiably so.
My Brewers vs. Reds prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to an edge at the plate.
Read on for my Saturday, August 31 MLB picks.
Brewers vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
There are multiple reasons why I’m optimistic about the Milwaukee Brewers taking care of business on the road on Saturday evening. First, they possess a clear hitting advantage.
Milwaukee paces the Cincinnati Reds in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Second, the Brewers sport the stronger bullpen.
This season, Milwaukee’s relief staff ranks in the league’s Top 10 in both ERA and xFIP. By comparison, Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks lower in each of those two key categories.
Finally, the Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Frankie Montas against his former team. While his surface-level stats don’t appear all that great, Milwaukee’s pitching coaches have (as they often do) brought out the best in Montas.
Over his past four starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.86 ERA, significantly below his season-long clip of 4.64.
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Brewers vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers -1.5
Blake Perkins Over 0.5 hits
William Contreras Over 0.5 hits
If we’re backing the Brewers to win by two or more runs, then we obviously need some hits. Enter Blake Perkins, who has been on fire.
Blake Perkins has recorded eight hits over his past eight games, posting a .333 BA in the process. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Fernando Cruz, who is slated to start for the Reds.
Against Cruz, Perkins is 1-2 with a single. Meanwhile, William Contreras continues to be one of the best players on this team and has recorded seven hits over the past four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Reds odds
Brewers vs Reds live odds
Brewers vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -1.5 (+122) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-146)
- Run line: Milwaukee -130 | Cincinnati +110
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Brewers vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -130 favorite and has since been bet down to -126.
- This line movement doesn’t scare me off the Brewers, which I attribute to Montas’ poor surface-level stats that are largely attributed to his time before Milwaukee.
- The total opened at nine and remains at that number as of early Saturday morning.
- I believe it is more likely that this total moves to 9.5 rather than 8.5, given that both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game.
Brewers vs Reds trend
Five of Milwaukee’s past six wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Reds.
Brewers vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (6-9, 4.64 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Fernando Cruz (3-8, 5.17 ERA) |
Brewers vs Reds latest injuries
Brewers vs Reds weather
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