The Cleveland Guardians host the Milwaukee Brewers in the final matchup of this three-game series at Progressive Field this afternoon.
My Brewers vs. Guardians predictions target the visiting team at plus-money odds on the moneyline.
Read on for my MLB picksfor Wednesday, May 14.
Brewers vs Guardians prediction
My Brewers vs Guardians best bet: Brewers moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
The Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams is a good fade candidate in this matinee matchup.
After a successful rookie campaign in 2023, injuries derailed his sophomore effort. Through 16 starts, he produced a 3-10 record with a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
These woes have continued into 2025, where Williams owns a 4.38 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 37 innings across eight starts.
His underlying metrics are even worse. The right-hander ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, and barrel rate. Further regression is likely to take place against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that shelled Williams in their last meeting.
In that outing, Williams surrendered five runs on six hits in just four innings of work. Milwaukee won that game 5-3. A bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA follows if Williams can't last long today.
Meanwhile, the hitting matchup is a wash. While Cleveland is the more powerful team, the Brewers do a better job at manufacturing runs.
Brewers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Jackson Chourio 1+ hits
Brice Turang 1+ hits
There are perhaps no two better candidates to give Williams a hard time than Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang.
Chourio is the best batter on the team and has recorded 12 hits over his past 12 games. Meanwhile, Turang is the purest contact-hitter on the Brewers, leading the team with a .295 batting average.
Finally, both Chourio and Turang are 1-for-3 in their careers against Williams.
Brewers vs Guardians odds
Brewers vs Guardians live odds
Brewers vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +125 | Cleveland -150
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-165) | Cleveland -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Brewers vs Guardians trend
Cleveland has lost in 14 of Williams’ past 22 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Brewers vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNWI, CLEG |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Logan Henderson (1-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (3-2, 4.38 ERA) |
Brewers vs Guardians latest injuries
Brewers vs Guardians weather
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