The Milwaukee Brewers lost in brutal fashion to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night after taking a handsome lead against Tyler Glasnow, and they’ll look to pick up the pieces against left-hander James Paxton on Saturday.
Milwaukee will counter with Freddy Peralta, a pitcher who has been trending downward ever since his blazing hot start to the season. Can the Dodgers do enough at the dish to pick up another victory and clinch the series?
I think they can, as I explain in my Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 6.
Brewers vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta hasn’t quite been the pitcher he was back in mid-April. He stumbled to a 4.08 ERA in the month of May before posting a 4.26 ERA in June, and even though he’s had a few solid starts in a row, I still have my questions about the righty.
The 28-year-old has never been one of my favorites to back given his volatility and lack of control. He’s issued two walks in each of his last three matches, and finished up June with 13 free passes in 31 2/3 innings. That’s not the trend you want to see when you’re up against the most patient team in the league in the Los Angeles Dodgers, and after last night’s barrage of home runs I’m not even sure you can trust him on contact here.
Peralta has allowed an inordinate number of fly balls over his career, bringing that mark up near 30% this season. L.A. owns a handsome .194 Isolated Power in the past week and should be well-equipped to do damage here given their expert plate discipline which has not only featured a ton of walks but a persistent ability to limit strikeouts.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have cooled significantly in the past month or so and in the last week own just a 106 wRC+ to rank 14th in baseball. The big issue has been a huge power outage as their ISO has dipped under .100 during that period. That should be music to James Paxton’s ears when you factor in his middling numbers on contact.
Paxton brought his Expected Batting Average down to a season-best .251 in June and seems to be trending in the right direction. With his strikeout numbers rising and his walk rate down in the past two months, too, I think he should have a good shot of protecting a lead here given Milwaukee’s lack of power and poor walk rate.
Brewers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
James Paxton 5+ strikeouts
Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases
Paxton’s strikeout rate seems to be improving. The southpaw has struggled in that department in the later stages of his career, but after starting off with a measly 13.2% punchout rate in April, he brought it up to 15.2% in June and a much better 20.8% in July.
The Brewers may be striking out a bit less in the last week, but the fact remains that they’ve struck out over 22% of the time this season and have been just a fraction below that number against lefties this season.
In terms of backing hitters here, there’s no better candidate than Freddie Freeman. He has two hits in four of his last six games and he’s been the second-best Dodgers batter against fly-ball pitchers with 76 total bases and a .347 average in the split.
While Shohei Ohtani’s been marginally better, he’s fallen into some issues lately when it comes to striking out, which has me skeptical against a high-strikeout arm like Peralta.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
Brewers vs Dodgers live odds
Brewers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-205) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -105 | Los Angeles -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) Under 8.5 (-115)
Brewers vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line here hasn’t moved much with the moneyline opening around a pick ‘em and staying right there throughout the betting window.
- The total opened up at 8.5 and has shot up to 9 early on Saturday afternoon, and the price continues to increase to back the Over.
- The Dodgers account for 73% of the bets on the moneyline at DraftKings but just 61% of the money.
- While 75% of the tickets wagered on the total are on the Over, it’s garnered just 53% of the handle.
Brewers vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have hit the moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA) |
Brewers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Brewers vs Dodgers weather
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