It’s Paul Skenes Day, and that means the odds have lost their bearings. With the Pittsburgh Pirates starting their most well-known player since a much smaller Barry Bonds was in Pittsburgh, plenty of casual bettors are backing the Bucs.
That means the better team is a heavy underdog, which means a chance to cash in. It’s why my Braves vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks are calling for an Atlanta win.
Who will win Braves vs Pirates today: Braves moneyline (+132)
Even at the height of his powers, Paul Skenes shouldn’t make the Atlanta Braves +132, and he’s far from his height.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost their last nine starts. It’s not merely a lack of run support — Skenes has a 5.36 ERA over his last nine games, and he’s coming off a career-worst day — eight runs and two homers in four innings.
It doesn’t guarantee a Braves win, but it’s the smart-money play if the Braves are heavier than +120. Atlanta is seven games better, has a run differential 62 runs higher, and is better on the road than Pittsburgh is at home.
COVERS INTEL: Paul Skenes' four-seamer and sinker have both lost almost one full MPH from last season and are spinning 90 revolutions less. His whiff rate on the sinker is 8.8%, about half of last season’s. His changeup is the same speed as before, and the lack of difference between that and his fastballs is affecting that pitch as well. Batters are hitting 100 points higher against the change this year.
Braves vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)
Skenes is affecting these odds as well. However, he's not pitched in the seventh inning in his last nine starts and has failed to complete six in six of them. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a 6.75 ERA in the last three games, in which they’ve pitched a total of 16 of the 27 innings.
Both teams are stroking the ball. Pittsburgh has scored five or more in each of the last five games. Atlanta has done one better, scoring a total of 44 in the last six.
The Braves start Hurston Waldrep, who's making just his third appearance since returning from February arm surgery.
- ML/RL bets: 25-32, -3.98 units
- Over/Under bets: 32-29, +0.32 units
Braves vs Pirates weather
Braves vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Braves +144 | Pirates -150
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (-144) | Pirates -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Braves vs Pirates trend
The Pirates have cashed the Over in 30 of their last 45 home games for +13.8 units and a 28% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Pirates.
How to watch Braves vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Tuesday, July 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, Gray Media |
| Braves starting pitcher | Hurston Waldrep (0-0, 3.68 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (6-8, 3.62 ERA) |
Braves vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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