Braves vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Picks Up Game 1 Win

Philadelphia is losing time in trying to catch back up in its division while Atlanta trails just 1.5 games. With both sides needing a win, who will prevail? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Phillies.

Last Updated: Jul 25, 2022 3:11 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Fried Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Another pivotal NL East series showdown begins tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves begin a three-game set.

Atlanta continues to chase the New York Mets in the division and trails them by only 1.5 games. The Braves come into today off a loss to the Los Angeles Angels but with a win in the series overall. On the other hand, Philadelphia has been slumping lately. The Phillies have won just three of their last 10 games and were recently swept by the Chicago Cubs. 

Who will take the opening matchup? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Phillies on Monday, July 25.

Braves vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves opened today as -150 favorites. They were quickly bet on and have gone to as high as -180 in some places. The Phillies are returning at the generous price of around +160 to +165. The total opened up at 8.0 and has stayed there since. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 7/25/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Monday, July 25, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Braves vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (10-3, 2.64 ERA): It's been another terrific season for Fried. He has been remarkably consistent over the last few months, posting an ERA of 2.16 in June. He is currently at that exact number for July, as well. Fried has elite numbers virtually everywhere across the board. However, what sticks out the most is how good of a job he does in inducing soft contact. Fried's exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and opponent barrel rate all rank among the Top 25% of qualified pitchers. He is primarily a fastball and slider pitcher and is coming off a seven-inning performance against the Washington Nationals, where he surrendered three earned runs. 

Ranger Suarez (7-5, 4.07 ERA): Suarez is performing in line with what you'd expect. His xERA, which sits at 4.02, is evidence of that. Like his counterpart, Suarez does an excellent job of inducing soft contact with a hard-hit rank that sets near the top of qualified pitchers. However, unlike Fried, the other numbers are near the league's bottom. What has hurt Suarez the most is while he does an excellent job of causing soft contact, he still doesn't produce enough swings and misses. In other words, the fundamentals are where he struggles. His walk rate, along with whiff rate, is among the league's worst. In addition, Suarez leans on his sinker heavily as it makes up about 45% of his pitching arsenal. When he has to turn to other pitchers, his location suffers.


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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Braves' last seven games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

There's something about this series that strikes me as tricky. It feels like the Phillies' last stand to lay any claim to the division. They are 9.5 games out of first in the NL East, and losing this series will bury them. Because of that, I expect this series to feature some close, hard-fought games and possibly a few surprising results. But I can't find my way into picking Philly tonight. The pitching discrepancy is too large, and the Braves have too much talent.

We cannot often key in on one pitch and make it a vital part of the handicap. Good pitchers will likely avoid that pitch against batters that are good at hitting it. Because of that, it becomes much less useful. That's not the case for Suarez. He's going to throw his sinker against anyone and make you hit it. That's a strength of the Braves team.

Atlanta will start four players in today's lineup with an average of over .300 against sinkers this season. That's a massive edge that many lineups don't offer.

On the reverse side, Fried has a good matchup against Phillies' pitchers. It, too, comes in the form of a pitch that he likes to favor. The difference is that Philly doesn't have much success against it. Fried's slider has been electric. It's producing a -11 run value on the season and a .191 batting average.

The Phillies lineup without Bryce Harper has just one batter hitting above league average against it. If Fried can get ahead in counts, he will strike out a decent number of Phillies because the slider is his primary putout pitch lately. 

I don't see much of an edge here on the current price. But, despite that, my handicap says the Braves win, and I'll follow that. 

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-180 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I'm not sure I want to bet a side here. My numbers make this line at about -110 both ways, with the same number that oddsmakers are posting. However, the divisional nature of this game makes me lean toward the Under. 

I don't worry much about the Phillies putting up many runs to make this Over. First, they are facing Fried, who is pretty good at throwing a baseball. But secondly, one of his best pitches is the slider, and it's one he goes to a lot. As previously outlined, Philadelphia has a lineup that doesn't do an excellent job of hitting those pitches.

The key part of this handicap is what the Braves can do at the plate. I expect them to have some success scoring, but I don't think they put up a huge number. One of Suarez's most prominent issues has been his location. It's why he's among the league's worst in BB percentage and a significant contributor to his ERA being north of four runs.

Atlanta isn't exactly the type of team to punish a pitcher who walks a lot of batters. It has one of the highest swing rates in baseball and one of the highest chase rates in baseball. The Braves will score, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to take this one Over.

This one should be pretty tightly contested. The Under is the best side on a number that seems pretty spot-on.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Let's keep this one simple. Fried is well equipped to go deep into this game with a strong matchup on one of his pitches. It also doesn't hurt that only one batter in the Philly lineup has had a historical success of note against him. But, conversely, the Phillies may keep this one close for quite a while. However, the Braves just has too good of a matchup here. 

Fried has surpassed five innings in all 19 starts this season. He'll make it to 20 today pretty quickly, and when he does exit the game, Atlanta will have the lead, putting him in a position to record the win. So back him on the mound to get this one started in a strong way for the Braves.

Pick: Max Fried to record the win (+105)

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