Braves vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Back Braves Behind Fried

Atlanta and San Diego will finish a suspended game from back on July 19 before starting a new game later tonight. With ATL ahead by just two games in the NL East, get the most of this crucial matchup with our Braves vs Padres picks.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2021 10:27 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Fried Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves took a bad loss to the Diamondbacks yesterday and now sit just two games ahead in the NL East. They’ll have to play tougher competition now as they’ll travel to San Diego to play and finish games today. 

Once the Padres announce a starter for this seven-inning game, there’s a chance the lines shift a bit, so stay tuned before making any bets. Here are our best free Braves vs Padres picks and predictions for Friday, September 24 with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. 

Braves vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Friday, September 24, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports San Diego

Braves vs Padres odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Check out the full line movement for this game

Braves vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (12-7, 3.31 ERA): The Braves have been in dire need of a legitimate arm that could carry this team. Fried has been that guy. The Braves have now won three straight games where he’s started. The lefty has also thrown 10 straight quality starts dating back to July, where he allowed four runs to the Phillies in five innings. He’s Mr. Reliable for the Braves and they need that as they fight for the NL East division. 

TBD: At publishing, the Padres had yet to announce a starter for tonight's game.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Adam Duvall OF (Questionable), Edgar Santana RP (Out), Stephen Vogt C (Out)
Padres: Blake Snell SP (Out), Chris Paddack SP (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Braves are 25-10 in their last 35 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

These two teams will finish a postponed game prior to this game's first pitch. In the postponed game, the Padres were leading the Braves, 5-4 in the 5th inning. That game will conclude after nine innings. However, the second game will be just seven innings. 

Currently, we don’t know who will start for the Padres. It’s hard to analyze a game without the starting pitcher but the reality is that the Padres will likely turn this into a bullpen game, needing seven innings out of their unit instead of nine. 

In September, the Padres pitching staff has allowed an OPS of .715 and has been a Top-10 unit for the month. Batters are still hitting .252 against the Padres this month, but they’ve limited the power, allowing the second-fewest home runs during this time. 

The Braves have been very productive on offense. Against righties, they have a .257 ISO and wOBA of .348 in the last 30 days, and against lefties, the lineup has a .171 ISO and wOBA of .308. Either way, this team has limited ground balls and are hitting hard line drives no matter who they face. Right now, for the Braves, they’d rather face a righty as they’ve had more success against them as of late. 

On the other hand, Max Fried will take the hill for the Braves and he’s on a hot streak of quality starts for Atlanta. It’s hard to bet against him doing that again, especially when the Padres have an ISO of .106 against lefties in the last 30 days. Outside of Fernando Tatis, San Diego hasn’t had much success against lefties. 

Take the Braves with the accomplished pitcher on the mound.

PREDICTION: Braves (+105)

Over/Under pick

If the Padres are able to limit the long ball, they’ll pitch well and keep San Diego in this game. Again, the bullpen has been able to allow few home runs in the last month or so, and keeping the ball in play will go a long way.

With Fried dominating against right-handed pitching, the Padres should struggle to score runs. He’s been bad against lefties in the last 30 days with a .465 wOBA and ISO of .414 to his last 32 lefties, but Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer would be the only lefties in the lineup in the first place. 

It’s a seven-inning game and the total is set at 8, meaning to hit the Over you’ll need to average more than a run per inning. I don’t think that’s possible, especially in the second game of a double-header when players start to get fatigued at the plate. 

Roll with the Under 8 here.

PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)

Braves vs Padres betting card

  • Braves +105
  • Under 8 (-150)

Picks made on 9/24/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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