Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Eovaldi Steers Sox to Success

Gerrit Cole just hasn't been himself of late, and with the Pinstripes playing their most important series of the season, it might be safer to back Boston. Find out why with our Yankees vs Red Sox picks.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2021 11:45 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, September 24. This historic rivalry has a little added juice at this point in the year, as both of these teams are competing for spots in the AL Wild Card Game. 

The Red Sox are currently set to host that game, but a lot can change in a series with a team that’s chasing you. If the Yankees can take two or three games this weekend, the whole playoff picture will change dramatically.  

Will New York make things interesting with a win in the series opener? Keep reading our Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and predictions. 

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Friday, September 24, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: WPIX, NESN, ESPN

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.03 ERA): Cole’s most recent start was an absolute disaster, with the righty giving up seven earned runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings against the Cleveland Indians. Cole gave up two homers in that game, and the Yankees went on to lose, 11-1. Now, New York desperately needs its ace to shake that one off. The Yankees made Cole one of the highest-paid players in baseball for games exactly like this one. 

Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.58 ERA): Eovaldi has been pitching really well as of late, with the righty having gotten his ERA down from 4.07 on August 6 to 3.58 heading into tonight’s game. Eovaldi has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts, and one of those was a five-inning outing against the Yankees on August 17. Eovaldi has also struck out at least seven betters in each of his last six starts. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Clint Frazier OF (out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (out), Zack Britton RP (out), Miguel Andujar 3B (out), Aaron Hicks OF (out)
Red Sox: Danny Santana OF (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 7-0 in their last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

June 3 was the day that the Major League Baseball’s “sticky stuff” problem reared its ugly head. After a poor start against the Tampa Bay Rays on that day, Cole’s ERA sat at a very impressive 2.26. Since then, the righty has seen that number rise all the way up to 3.03. For a normal pitcher, that’s a superb season. However, Cole is one of the highest-paid players in baseball, and he’s expected to consistently go out and dominate opponents. That hasn’t been the case in the second half of the year, with the righty occasionally going out and getting shelled — much like he did against the Indians last game. 

Cole has also struggled in his two starts in Fenway Park this year, giving up eight earned runs over a total of only 10.0 innings. The Red Sox combined to hit four homers off of him in those two home games, and that should make for a confident Boston group when these two hit the field tonight. Also, there isn’t a team in baseball with a higher BABIP against righties than Boston’s .310 this year. That essentially means that nobody makes harder contact than the Red Sox, who are also tied for first in ISO against right-handed pitching and alone at the top in slugging percentage. With that in mind, this is a bad matchup for Cole, who hasn’t quite been himself this year. 

As for Eovaldi, it’s hard to think of a pitcher than has flown more under the radar than he has lately. The righty has been going out and shutting down opponents on a nightly basis, and he also has turned in a few great starts against the Yankees this season. In five games against New York, Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a total of 34 strikeouts over 31.1 innings. The 31-year-old clearly likes the bright lights, and he’ll look to raise his game again in this one. 

PREDICTION: Red Sox ML (+105) 

Over/Under pick

Even with Cole coming off a bad performance against the Indians, this number just seems way too high for a meeting between two outstanding pitchers. Cole had allowed one or fewer runs in five of his previous six starts before that dud against Cleveland, and a poor outing against Boston would likely mean that he still only gave up three or four runs. Meanwhile, Eovaldi has already proven that he’s had the Yankees’ number this season, and it’s hard to envision New York really getting to him here — even with the offense clicking coming into this one. 

For what it’s worth, the Under is 19-6-1 in New York’s last 26 games against AL East opponents. It’s also 4-1 in Boston’s last five games as an underdog. 

PREDICTION: Under 9.0 (-105)

Yankees vs Red Sox betting card

  • Red Sox ML (+105) 
  • Under 9.0 (-105)

Picks made on 9/24/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET

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