MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 7, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Nathan Church logo
Nathan Church o0.5 Total RBIs (+373)
Projection 0.36
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nathan Church will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Nathan Church will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Nathan Church's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 14.3%.
Total RBIs
Lars Nootbaar logo
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.48
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Jacob Misiorowski today.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Tue, Jul 7 • 6:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field fences are the shallowest.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.
Total Bases
Pete Alonso logo
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+126)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Pete Alonso will have the upper hand in today's game.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dillon Dingler logo
Dillon Dingler o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Dillon Dingler is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #9 stadium in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Strikeouts Thrown
Tarik Skubal logo
Tarik Skubal u8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-129)
Projection 7.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Tarik Skubal will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Tarik Skubal has utilized his change-up 6% less often this season (25.5%) than he did last year (31.5%).
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Dominic Canzone has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 34% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles LoanDepot Park as the 7th-worst field in baseball for left-handed batting average.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dominic Canzone in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh logo
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
LoanDepot Park ranks as the #29 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Olson logo
Matt Olson o1.5 Total Bases (+131)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game.
Total Bases
Michael Harris II logo
Michael Harris II o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Michael Harris II's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Michael Harris II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt logo
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Ian Seymour throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have the upper hand today.. Paul Goldschmidt has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Ben Rice logo
Ben Rice o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ben Rice ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 park in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Ben Rice pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the worst among every team today.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Tue, Jul 7 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Curtis Mead logo
Curtis Mead o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Curtis Mead ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Keibert Ruiz logo
Keibert Ruiz o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.45
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Tatsuya Imai... and even better, Imai has a large platoon split.. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Keibert Ruiz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph average.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Cincinnati Reds logo CIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 ballpark in the league for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto logo
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
J.T. Realmuto's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the best field in the league for righty home runs.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. J.T. Realmuto will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in today's game.. J.T. Realmuto has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Mets logo NYM Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jac Caglianone logo
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jac Caglianone has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Jac Caglianone will hold the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga today.. Jac Caglianone hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.22
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in the league.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage over Seth Lugo today.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kahlil Watson logo
Kahlil Watson u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kahlil Watson in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. This year, Kahlil Watson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Among all stadiums, Target Field's CF fences are the 10th-deepest.. Kahlil Watson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Over the last week, Kahlil Watson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 93.7 mph to 82.8 mph.
Total Bases
Victor Caratini logo
Victor Caratini o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.35
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures of the day at 88°.. Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. In the last week, Victor Caratini's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.7-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph of late.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+146)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 53 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #6 stadium in the league for overall righty offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Schultz has a large platoon split.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
Projection 2.13
Best Odds
Pick made: 53 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Colson Montgomery will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 7 • 8:05 PM ET
6 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Alejandro Osuna logo
Alejandro Osuna u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
35% of the time that Alejandro Osuna has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Alejandro Osuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. This season, Alejandro Osuna's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6% last year to just 0% this year.
Total Hits
Nicky Lopez logo
Nicky Lopez u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nicky Lopez in the 4th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.. Nicky Lopez has been pulled from the game early 21% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the league are found in Globe Life Field.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ San Diego Padres logo SD Tue, Jul 7 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. logo
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
Projection 0.51
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. In the past 7 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.9-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph of late.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s true offensive ability to be a .310, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .051 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .259 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Ketel Marte logo
Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ketel Marte projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 14% on the season to 31.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Using Statcast data, Ketel Marte grades out in the 92nd percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .366.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Jul 7 • 9:45 PM ET
5 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Over the last week, Kazuma Okamoto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15% up to 25%.. In the last 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.1-mph over the course of the season to 102.1-mph of late.
Total RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky this year, posting a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .374 — a .069 difference.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Tue, Jul 7 • 10:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best field in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Teoscar Hernandez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 96.1-mph in the past 7 days.
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg logo
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+151)
Projection 1.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best field in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium's centerfield fences are the 9th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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