The Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball and will encounter a fantastic matchup in the struggling Cal Quantrill on Wednesday. The issue for Atlanta is its starter, Michael Soroka, may play right into the Guardians’ hands. Which side of the MLB odds should bettors be on here?
Let’s break down Braves vs. Guardians in our MLB picks and predictions for July 5.
Braves vs Guardians odds
Braves vs Guardians predictions
There are few teams that like hitting ground balls as much as the Cleveland Guardians, who own a 44.7% ground ball rate for the season, which puts them sixth in the game. There are few things Michael Soroka loves more than rolling up grounders, doing so at a 52.6% rate for his career, which is around eight points higher than the league average.
Soroka’s ground ball rate is all the way up to 55.8% in 2023, and his strikeout rate remains low at 16.7%. It’s been just 15 2/3 innings, but I think we can safely expect a lot of contact on the ground.
This should play right into Cleveland’s hands here. This is a team with a solid .245 expected batting average which knows how to place ground balls and beat out infield singles.
There’s little to like about Cal Quantrill in this one, however, so it’s hard to say this game will swing one way or the other. The righty relies on pitching to contact but has a ground ball rate well below average, and that’s dangerous against a team as good as the Atlanta Braves.
With that, I land on the Over.
My best bet: Over 10 (-105 at DraftKings)
Braves vs Guardians same-game parlay
Over 10
Amed Rosario 2+ TB
Matt Olson 2+ TB
We’ve got two pitchers in awful spots here, so a couple of props on hitters should be in play here. I’m going to go with two of the best on either side of the ball here, considering both should love facing their respective pitchers.
The first is Amed Rosario. The Guardians’ starting shortstop may be the hottest hitter in the league right now with 10 hits in his last five games, spanning 24 at-bats. I always love playing his props considering Rosario rarely walks and loves to swing, so you’re not going to have to watch this bet go up in flames on account of a walk or two. He’s an extreme ground ball hitter who should love facing a pitch-to-contact guy in Soroka, and that should help him remain hot.
Then there’s Matt Olson. No one on the Braves hits more fly balls than Olson, who is putting 47.5% of his batted balls in the air. He’s got a nice 26.4% home run to fly ball ratio as well, so I could certainly see the powerhouse putting one out of the yard. At the very least, Olson should be able to record a double here, and that makes him a solid play.
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Braves vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
If we want to get real with this game, I think it’s a pick ‘em at the worst. Neither pitcher has a discernable edge, and while Atlanta’s offense is much stronger than Cleveland’s, this is a rare case where the Guardians should be feared.
I think there’s a lot of value in taking the Guardians here at home at plus money. Progressive Field ranks 21st of the 30 big-league parks in home run factor according to Statcast, so while I do think there’s a good chance Quantrill gives up some longballs, there’s a slim chance he gets taken to the woodshed by Atlanta.
That’s also the reason why Quantrill has been marginally better at home with a 6.04 ERA in Cleveland versus a 6.27 ERA on the road. He’s only allowed two home runs in five home starts, so he should theoretically be able to wiggle his way out of too much trouble here.
My best bet on this game is the Over and the public likes it too, pushing it up from an opening line of 9.5.
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Trend to know
The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Guardians
Braves vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Michael Soroka (1-1, 6.89 ERA): The right-hander has started slowly in his first season back following a three-year injury layoff, allowing 12 earned runs in his first 15 2/3 innings. He is coming off his best start to date, which saw him complete six innings and allow just three earned runs with seven strikeouts.
Cal Quantrill (2-5, 6.18 ERA): Quantrill has allowed six or more earned runs in his previous three outings, though two of those have come on the road. He’s yet to allow a home run in any of those starts, instead being beaten down by consistent contact.
