The Atlanta Braves have scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games, and now they're tasked with facing Logan Henderson and the Milwaukee Brewers (-170).
My Braves vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks expect Atlanta's offensive struggles to continue, setting the stage for Milwaukee to claim another low-scoring victory on Saturday, Aug. 22.
Who will win Braves vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-175)
The Atlanta Braves are reeling offensively. They sit 28th in on base percentage against right-handed pitching in August, and it’s not going to get any easier for them facing Logan Henderson.
He has been exceptional, pitching to a 2.70 ERA, 2.90 SIERA, and striking out over 31% of opposing batters.
The Milwaukee Brewers are more likely to hold their own at the plate. Regression started to come for Martin Perez last time out, and his season numbers (3.15 ERA, 4.64 SIERA) indicate tougher times are still ahead.
Back the in-form offense against the weaker pitcher. Brewers to -180.
COVERS INTEL: Henderson ranks in the 94th percentile in xERA, and will make life miserable on a struggling Braves offense.
Braves vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Six different Braves own xwOBAs of .300 or worse against Henderson’s pitch mix over the last 30 games.
There are a lot of black holes in their offense right now, and that is going to make it tough to score more than a couple of runs off Henderson.
Perez is an elite home run suppressor, on pace to give up fewer than one HR/9 for the second consecutive year.
His ability to limit raw power — even when not at his best — should help keep the Brewers to a manageable number.
Take the Under to -112.
Braves vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+425)
Jackson Chourio has a strong profile against left-handed pitching. He owns a .305 average, .891 OPS, and his batted ball numbers are very good.
Chourio sits in the 82nd percentile in xSLG, as well as the 88th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrels. He is consistently making powerful contact.
His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are trending up over the last 25 at-bats, and he's taken Perez yard in one of eight career at-bats against him.
I’d play Chourio to +415.
- ML/RL bets: 86-78, -10.20 units
- Over/Under bets: 85-73-6, +1.22 units
Braves vs Brewers weather
This game will be played in a dome.
Braves vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Braves +145 | Brewers -170
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (-140) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Braves vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 35 of their last 50 home games (+11.55 units, 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers.
How to watch Braves vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Logan Henderson (7-2, 2.70 ERA) |
Braves vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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