Game 3 of the NLCS is set for tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium, and I've pinpointed my best Brewers vs. Dodgers home run predictions.
William Contreras starts things off, followed by Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez.
Read it all in my MLB picks — and full Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions — for Wednesday, Oct. 14.
Best Brewers vs Dodgers home run picks
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William Contreras
Teoscar Hernandez
Brewers home run pick: William Contreras
Play up to 19%.
I had William Contreras in my HR picks for Game 2, and he ultimately went deep for the third time this postseason. He’s been Milwaukee’s biggest power threat in October, and the underlying metrics make him difficult to ignore for HR No. 4 tonight.
The catcher owns a .391 ISO in the playoffs and a 60% hard-hit rate. He’s also consistently elevating the baseball, posting a 50% fly-ball rate.
Facing Snell is obviously a difficult assignment, but Contreras is seeing the ball extremely well right now. With this combination of hard contact and lift, he has the profile to punish a mistake and leave the yard again.
Long-shot home run pick: Teoscar Hernandez
Play up to 20%.
While Teoscar Hernandez is batting just .217 in the playoffs, he has already gone deep once, and his underlying power numbers are much more encouraging than his batting average suggests.
The veteran owns a 50% hard-hit rate and an 18.8% barrel rate this postseason, while his .548 xSLG points to plenty of power upside.
The matchup also works in Hernandez's favor. He hit .303 against left-handed pitching this season, with seven home runs, giving him another appealing opportunity against southpaw Robert Gasser.
Dodgers home run pick: Freddie Freeman
Play up to 20%.
Freddie Freeman’s batting average doesn’t tell the full story of his postseason. The veteran consistently punishes the baseball, producing a 68.4% hard-hit rate and a massive 26.3% barrel rate through six playoff games.
That quality of contact has already resulted in two home runs, while Freeman is also putting 47.4% of his batted balls in the air. When he combines this much lift with frequent barrels, the power upside is obvious.
Gasser presents a same-handed matchup, but Freeman is 2-for-2 with two doubles against him in their limited history. It’s a tiny sample, but with Freeman seeing the ball this well, I’m backing him to leave the yard again.
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Brewers vs Dodgers home run combo
I’m combining three of the strongest power profiles in this matchup. Contreras has been Milwaukee’s most dangerous hitter in October with serious pop in his bat. On the other side, Freeman is consistently barreling the ball, while Hernandez brings a strong platoon edge against left-handed pitching.
Rather than relying on one offense to do all the damage, this combo spreads the home run exposure across both sides while targeting hitters consistently producing the type of hard, elevated contact necessary to go deep.
- HR picks: 22-111, -5.03 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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