The Toronto Blue Jays go for the series win at Fenway Park this afternoon, sending Kevin Gausman to the mound against Boston Red Sox left-hander Ranger Suarez.
Toronto’s pitching has been overpowering all weekend, and I’m backing Gausman to keep the strikeouts coming in my top play.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for this Sunday, July 26 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
I’ve had some luck with pitcher props lately, and the Toronto Blue Jays staff is on a roll with strikeouts. Toronto racked up 13 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox on Friday, then Dylan Cease delivered a one-hit shutout with 12 more on Saturday. I expect Kevin Gausman to keep it going in the finale.
Gausman hasn’t been himself this year, but if you toss out his last disastrous start (3 1/3 innings, four earned, one strikeout), he had punched out at least seven in each of the three starts before it.
His splitter has been much sharper in July, up to a 45% whiff rate, with hitters slugging just .182 on it and no extra-base hits.
Boston just faced Cease, who lives with high fastballs and low offspeed, and Gausman works the same way. Anecdotally, I also believe he’ll be dialed in with a potential trade looming. I’d play his strikeout prop until -120.
COVERS INTEL: Kevin Gausman has recorded seven and 10 strikeouts, respectively, in his last two starts against the Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
I’ll start with Blue Jays moneyline at plus money, where the value is real. The Jays have still won six of eight meetings with Boston this year, and Ranger Suarez is on a workload limit in his return from the injured list.
I’ll pair the moneyline with Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts from my best bet, then add Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases, leaning on his massive history at Fenway Park and his platoon edge against the left-hander.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)
It would be unwise to let the Blue Jays leave Fenway Park without a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run bet. As every Jays fan knows, you’d be in the hole backing Vladdy to homer every day, but the venue changes the math.
He owns the best hitting numbers at Fenway among active players, with a 1.017 OPS, 12 home runs, and 51 RBI in just 58 games.
I’ll keep this to a quarter unit, since Guerrero has a tall task against Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez and his career 0.8 HR/9. Still, Vladdy has been far better against lefties this year, with an .806 OPS against southpaws compared to .679 against righties. I’d play down to +600.
- Best bets: 10-9, +0.48 units
- SGPs: 3-17, -1.31 units
- HR picks: 3-17, -1.25 units
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Boston -135
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Blue Jays have won six of their eight meetings with the Red Sox this season, including a June sweep and Saturday’s shutout. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Sunday, 7-26-2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (4-9, 4.51 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.15 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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