The Seattle Mariners will look to take a stranglehold on the American League Championship Series when they return home to host the Toronto Blue Jays, already up two games to none after taking the first two on the road.
Now, the M’s turn to George Kirby as the series shifts to Seattle, but how will the right-hander who stays in the strike zone fare against the contact-heavy Jays?
My Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions break it all down and bring you MLB picks for this pivotal Game 3 of the ALCS.
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Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3 predictions
Who will win Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3
I'll break this down further in a moment, but this Toronto team knows a couple of games don't define how they play overall. The Blue Jays also match up well with Seattle starter George Kirby. They respond here and make it a series.
Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet
Blue Jays moneyline (+115)
Things were set up perfectly for the Toronto Blue Jays heading into the American League Championship Series. They wrapped up their Divisional Series against the New York Yankees in four games, while the Detroit Tigers took the Seattle Mariners, not only the distance, but 15 innings in Game 5, where they went through a huge number of arms.
And then baseball was played. The Mariners rode their strong pitching and timely hitting to take both of the first two games in Toronto. Now, they return home to Seattle looking to push the Blue Jays to the brink in Game 3.
But that will be easier said than done against this relentless Blue Jays lineup.
Seattle hands the ball to George Kirby for this matchup. Kirby had a solid season, but he’s not the type of pitcher who strikes fear into opposing lineups. On top of that, he may be a bad stylistic matchup for Toronto.
Kirby pitches in the strike zone more than most, and while that means fewer walks, he can get tagged for a lot of hits. And the Blue Jays will contact you to death if you let them.
The Mariners right-hander finished the regular season ranked in the 55th percentile in expected ERA and in the 34th percentile in opponent expected batting average. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, led the majors in expected batting average and batting average vs. right-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays counter Kirby with Shane Bieber, who is looking to bounce back after a shaky performance vs. the Yankees in the divisional round. But he is a former Cy Young Award winner who has postseason experience.
The other thing to note here is how Toronto West will look in these games. In the regular season, Canadian Blue Jays fans from out west flock to games against the Mariners. But will they be able to get a hold of tickets for a postseason game? Either way, it’s unlikely the crowd will be as hostile as the one they faced in the Bronx last round.
All things considered, the Blue Jays have a great opportunity to bounce back in Game 3, meaning they have value as moneyline dogs here.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3 same-game parlay (SGP)
If the Blue Jays bounce back in this American League Championship Series, it will continue to be fueled by George Springer.
After a quiet start to the postseason, Springer now has hits in three consecutive games, all three for extra bases. He is also 3-for-8 with a double in his career vs. Kirby. So, backing him here to get another couple of bases is a solid addition to this SGP.
On the other side, while Cal Raleigh gets all the headlines, Jorge Polanco might be the most professional and clutch hitter in this Mariners lineup.
He’s got five hits and six RBIs over his last three postseason games. There’s no reason to think he slows down now. Round this SGP out with Polanco to go Over 0.5 hits.
Blue Jays vs Mariners SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
- Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 hits
Blue Jays vs Mariners home run pick for Game 3
Nathan Lukes (+1100)
Nathan Lukes is locked in. He's got multiple his in all three postseason games he's started and finished, while lefties have slugged much better vs. Kirby this season.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Seattle -135
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-210) | Seattle -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.0 | Under 7.0
Blue Jays vs Mariners trend
The Blue Jays and Mariners have played Over the total in six of their eight meetings this season, including the postseason. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and Game 3 info
| Location | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Wednesday, October 15, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (0-0, 6.75 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (0-0, 2.70 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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