A low-scoring series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers concludes this afternoon at American Family Field.
Now is not the time to play contrarian with my Blue Jays vs. Brewers predictions, so I'm rolling with another dearth of scoring in Milwaukee today.
I expect Chris Bassitt to be a big reason why in my MLB picks for Wednesday, June 12 below.
Blue Jays vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have combined for seven total runs through the first two games of this series. The Blue Jays offense has been inconsistent all season long, which has more or less been the one consistent thing about them.
The Brewers have fared better with the sticks for the most part but have scored two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games.
Today's total of 8.5 is inflated and worth fading at plus money. Milwaukee rookie Tobias Myers hasn't typically pitched deep into games, but he's been stretched out a bit, hitting 100 pitches over eight shutout innings in his last start for the best outing of his brief career. Now, he can't be counted on another spotless performance, but Toronto's bats haven't given us any reason to believe in a sudden breakout.
Chris Bassitt — more on him below — is a bit of an enigma, and his propensity to pitch to contact can get him in trouble. But, for the second straight season, he's bounced back from a near-catastrophic start to his season to be one of Toronto's most reliable arms.
After getting clobbered by the Dodgers on April 26 (seven runs on nine hits in 2 2/3 innings), he's been excellent. Bassitt allowed 12 earned runs over 43 innings across his last seven outings (2.51 ERA) and hasn't surrendered more than three in any start over that stretch.
He's a workhorse, topping 100 pitches in five of his last six starts, meaning he has a long enough leash every time he takes the mound, which can help keep the suspect Blue Jays bullpen from letting things fly sideways. Bassitt also only allowed one home run since May 1, doing a wonderful job of limiting damage when opponents do get on base.
Alternately, the first five innings O/U of 4.5 is available at even money at PROLINE+, which is a fine alternative if Toronto's bullpen scares you.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 strikeouts (-118 at PROLINE+)
Bassitt is typically not known as a strikeout artist but he can often get the job done due to longevity. He's cleared 5.5 strikeouts in three straight games, and the Brewers are a middle-of-the-road K team.
He has one of the deepest arsenals in baseball, relying largely on his sinker before turning to his cutter, slider, and curve before introducing the odd splitter and changeup. When he gets comfortable, he keeps opposing offenses off balance, which has been the case of late.
Let's take Bassitt to continue his strong run by racking up at least six strikeouts over a lengthy outing.
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Blue Jays vs Brewers odds
Blue Jays vs Brewers live odds
Blue Jays vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-200) | Milwaukee -1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Milwaukee -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Blue Jays vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline opened with both teams at -110 and has bounced between that and Brewers -115/Blue Jays -105 since.
- The total opened at a flat 8.0 but has been bet up to 9.0 at some books despite the Blue Jays' propensity to hit Unders.
- The Under has cashed in each of the first two games of this series.
- While the Jays haven't hit with much consistency, they've kept things close, covering the run line in 10 of their last 15 road games.
Blue Jays vs Brewers trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the game total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+8.15 units/12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers
Blue Jays vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, BSWI |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.80 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (2-2, 4.15 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Brewers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Brewers weather
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