We have a busy betting slate in Major League Baseball today, including the rubber match between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre.
Alejandro Kirk got the day off yesterday, but has been the Jays’ hottest hitter this week. He has had a lot of success against Tanner Bibee throughout his career, and my Blue Jays predictions expect that to continue this afternoon.
Find out why with my free MLB picks for this May 4 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for May 4
- Best bet
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.0 total bases
(+115 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 total bases
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bowden Francis Over 2.5 earned runs
(+400 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Kirk crushes it
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.0 total bases (+115 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians split the first two games of the series, and a rubber match will decide the winner of this three-game set.
Toronto sends Bowden Francis to the mound this afternoon, while the Guardians counter with right-hander Tanner Bibee.
Bibee has won both of his previous starts against Toronto, surrendering just two runs combined in those games. However, he did allow six hits in each, including two to the Jays’ hottest hitter in the lineup — Alejandro Kirk.
Since April 25, Kirk has been swinging a hot bat, recording at least one hit in five of his last six games, leading the team with a .400 average in that stretch with a .960 OPS.
Kirk is expected to catch Francis this afternoon after getting the day off yesterday. He had three hits in the first game against the Guardians, raising his career average against Cleveland to .368, including going 2-for-2 against Bibee in the lone game they faced off against each other previously.
It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for Bibee, who’s 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA. He’s also struggled against right-handed batters more than lefties, allowing an .840 OPS against them. So I’m expecting Kirk, a righty, to take advantage of this matchup.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 total bases
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bowden Francis Over 2.5 earned runs
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror the best bet and take Kirk to go Over 0.5 total bases today.
Next for my SGP, it's Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 strikeouts. Cleveland has a good game plan for attacking Jays batters as they struck out Toronto 12 times yesterday and 17 times total in the series so far. Additionally, Bibee has five strikeouts in three straight starts and has pitched much better in his last two outings.
Let's wrap it up with Bowden Francis Over 2.5 earned runs allowed. He’s given up 10 runs in his last two starts and has exceeded 2.5 earned runs in three of his last four outings. He also has an expected ERA of 7.45, ranking in the bottom 2% of the league. Yikes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Sunday, May 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (2-4, 5.28 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (1-1, 4.36 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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