Remember the Oklahoma City Thunder? The proud owners of the best record in the NBA? The ones with the presumptive MVP? The team with a historic point differential?
You can be forgiven if OKC slipped your mind. It has not played in more than a week since sweeping Memphis.
That advantage should loom large against the Denver Nuggets, not exactly fresh off a grueling seven-game series against the Clippers, finally prevailing fewer than 48 hours before this second-round series will tip off.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks trust that rest advantage before tip at 9:30 ET on Monday, May 5.
Who will win Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1?
Historically, Game 7 wins lead to Game 1 losses. Maybe that's a physical effect, with teams simply too worn out by the grind of a series and now facing a team with a rest advantage. Or maybe that's a psychological effect, the inevitable letdown after doing in a do-or-die moment. Most likely, it's a combination of both.
That edge inspires enough faith in the Oklahoma City Thunder to win this game, though they went only 2-2 against the Denver Nuggets in the regular season.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Thunder -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
Do not overthink this. Oklahoma City enters this game with nine days off. In the regular season, perhaps that would lead to some rust or some distractions. In the postseason, the Thunder have assuredly stayed largely on task and gotten some practices in.
Young teams benefit even more from having time to prepare in the postseason. The intensity of the moment can mangle their game plans. Drilling those plans well into the young minds helps them stay solid when the lights shine brightest.
That edge alone provides value in the Thunder.
So do the Nuggets’ roster realities.
Denver was already thin to start. This has been a developing frustration since the Nuggets won the 2023 title, then losing Bruce Brown to free agency with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope following him this past summer. Credit the remaining Nuggets for slipping by the Clippers but realize they played a seven-man rotation.
And of those seven, two are liabilities. Sometimes Russell Westbrook shows up. He scored 16 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished out five assists, and corralled five steals in the clinching win. But he cannot be relied upon. His intrusive thoughts win too often.
Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. has a failing shoulder. He put in 15 points and grabbed six rebounds in the series clincher, but he also didn't crack 30 minutes, limited by that shoulder.
Less than two days between games will not comfort that pain, and it will be a worry for Porter for the rest of the postseason.
Against a fresh and much deeper Thunder rotation, these Nuggets’ shortcomings will loom large all series, but especially in Game 1.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -9.5
Nuggets Team Total Under 107.5
Peyton Watson Over 3.5 points
Do not underestimate the reality of this rest advantage. It looms larger for the Nuggets than it would for most teams. They should pick their moments to win games in this series, and if a game is lost, do not sacrifice a chance in another game in hopes of a heroic comeback.
That may sound defeatist, but it's mostly pragmatic.
That should lead to packing it in relatively early in Game 1, putting the Denver bench in, including seventh-man Peyton Watson.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +9.5 | Oklahoma City -9.5
- Moneyline: Denver +350 | Oklahoma City -450
- Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City set the highest winning percentage against the spread since sports gambling became regulated in the U.S., going 54-26-2 ATS this season.
- These two teams played an odd back-to-back in Oklahoma City in mid-March, splitting the two games both outright and ATS. That first spread favored the home team by 7.5; the second game favored the home team by 9.5.
- That spread moving by two points spoke to the Thunder’s advantage in depth. It should be furthered in Game 1 with the added rest, as well.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
The Thunder have gone 11-4 ATS at home since the All-Star Break. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
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