There is a stacked 16-game slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday, featuring a pair of Dodgers to go deep vs. the Braves tonight.
Here are my free MLB picks for Sunday, May 4.
Best MLB home run props today
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Abrams 1+ HR (+425) -
Betts 1+ HR (+500) - Ohtani 1+ HR (+245)
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HR picks for May 4
CJ Abrams to hit a home run (+425 at DraftKings)
The Cincinnati Reds host the Washington Nationals in the afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Right-hander Nick Martinez takes the mound for Cincinnati, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.
Through six starts this season, Martinez is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the 37th percentile in expected ERA (xERA) and 19th percentile in expected batting average (xBA).
That brings us to CJ Abrams, who has been on fire lately. Over his past 12 games, Abrams boasts a .313 batting average, .500 slugging percentage, and .877 OPS.
This success is likely to continue against Martinez, a pitcher Abrams has previously homered against.
Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+500 at DraftKings)
Later in the evening, the Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball. We’re going to target two hitters from Los Angeles, starting with Mookie Betts.
Like Abrams, Betts has been seeing the ball well recently. He has recorded at least one hit in each of the past six games, posting a .400 batting average, .640 slugging percentage and 1.047 OPS over that stretch.
He is likely to keep things rolling against right-hander Bryce Elder, who takes the mound for Atlanta. Through 11 plate appearances against Elder, Betts sports a .556 slugging percentage and one home run.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+245 at DraftKings)
Elder has also struggled this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through five starts. His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 31st percentile in xERA and 24th percentile in xBA.
Along with Betts, Shohei Ohtani is a strong candidate to go yard in this matchup. If either one hits a home run, we profit, and if both do, all the better.
Ohtani has homered in two of the past four games, posting a .313 batting average, .813 slugging percentage, and 1.234 OPS over that span. He is also 2-for-5 in his career against Elder, with one of those hits being a home run.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (+185)
- New York Yankees o1.5 HR (+135)
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+245)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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