Blue Jays vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Toronto Takes Rubber Match on Road

After splitting the first two games of the series, Toronto and Milwaukee will meet Sunday afternoon to decide the winner of this series. Which offense will show up today? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Brewers.

Last Updated: Jun 26, 2022 12:29 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have each taken a game in this series and will play the rubber match today. Runs have come in bunches in both games so look for the Over to hit for the third consecutive game. 

Both teams are sending struggling pitchers to the mound for the finale. Toronto’s Jose Berrios has a 5.11 ERA while Milwaukee’s Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 7.36 ERA. 

Who is going to take the deciding game on Sunday? Find in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Brewers on June 26. 

Blue Jays vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays are the favorite for Sunday’s finale, opening at -120 and shooting up as high as -139, though DraftKings has it at -130. The Brewers began at +100 and are getting +127 at WynnBET. The total has stayed at 9.5 but the Over/Under lines haven’t. The Over went from -110 to +100 while the Under went from -11.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 6/26/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports

Blue Jays vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (5-3, 5.11 ERA) Berrios seems to have reverted to some bad habits that got him in trouble in April and May when his ERA never got below 4.13 and ballooned as high as 6.35. Berrios had two good starts at the beginning of June, where he went seven and eight innings, allowing a total of three runs on eight hits, and picking up two wins. His last two outings, however, have been less productive. Berrios went seven innings in one start, but gave up three runs on three hits, including two home runs. In his last appearance, he failed to reach the fifth inning, allowing six runs on nine hits, including three homers. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-1, 7.36 ERA): Gonzalez was picked up on waivers from the Minnesota Twins because the Brewers’ pitching staff has been decimated with injuries. Half of the opening day starters are on the disabled list and Gonzalez became the ninth pitcher to start a game for Milwaukee this season. Sporting a 7.71 ERA when he took the mound five days ago against the St. Louis Cardinals, the 30-year-old right-hander went four innings, allowing three runs on three hits and picking up the loss. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Questionable), Danny Jansen C (Out), Yimi Garcia RP (Questionable), Trevor Richards RP (Out).
Brewers: Kolten Wong 2B (Out), Alex Jackson C (Out), Hunter Renfroe RF (Out), Trevor Gott RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 5-11 in their last 16 games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers

Blue Jays vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have won a game in this series, but how they won is more of an indication of how Sunday’s game should go. 

In Friday’s first game, the Blue Jays pounced on Adrian Houser, getting five runs in the second inning en route to a 9-4 drubbing. 

In Saturday’s second game, the Brewers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and then hung on for dear life as Toronto came back and nearly tied it in the ninth, before falling 5-4. 

Milwaukee’s Josh Hader almost blew his second save of the season, but instead tied Taylor Rogers of the San Diego Padres for the league lead with 22. 

The Blue Jays weren’t able to completely get to Hader, but they do have a powerful offense. They are fourth in the majors in batting average at .256, sixth in hits with 610, 10th in runs with 332, fifth in home runs with 92, and eighth in RBI with 323. 

This team has been able to show off its power capabilities in the first two games of this series. In Saturday’s matchup, Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette both homered, while in Friday’s contest, Cavan Biggio and Alejandro Kirk went long. 

The Brewers don’t have a bad offense, it’s just not as powerful as Toronto’s. They are middle of the pack in hits (19th), RBI (11th), and runs (12th). The one stat where they are ahead of the Blue Jays is home runs, where they are fourth with 95. 

It shouldn’t take long for the Blue Jays to take advantage of a shaky Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has only had three starts on the year and given up three runs in all of them. 

Besides, the Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games and 1-5 in their last six interleague home games against a right-handed starter.

Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Take a powerful offense that has been routinely hitting the Over against a pitcher who has given up three runs in his three games starting this season, and this could get real ugly, real quick. 

Gonzalez faced the Jays already this season while with the Minnesota Twins. It was his first start of the year and he only lasted three innings — allowing three runs on four hits, including two home runs.  Now he has to face the stacked Blue Jays’ lineup for the second time this year and on four days' rest.

His opponent, Jose Berrios, might be just as vulnerable. In his last start, the Chicago White Sox teed off on the 28-year-old right-hander, tagging him for six runs on nine hits, including three homers. 

Berrios told reporters after that game he was struggling with his breaking ball and that pitching coach Pete Walker was trying to give him advice between innings. 

“We tried,” Berríos said. “We talked about it and Pete (Walker) explained it to me inning by inning, and I was trying to make that adjustment. But I wasn’t able to finish and get those pitches down.”

If Berrios doesn’t make that adjustment before he takes the mound on Sunday, he could be contributing to the Over.

The Over has hit for the Blue Jays six out of their last six interleague road games against a right-handed starter and is 8-0 in their last six when the total is set between 9.0-10.5. 

The Over for the Brewers is 4-1-1 in their last six home games when the total is set between 9.0-10.5. The Over is also 7-2-1 in the Brewers’ last 10 home games against a right-handed starter. All signs point to today's total heading in that direction.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100 at WynnBET)

Best bet

Both Berrios and Gonzalez can get roughed up early in a game. The Brewers, and especially the Blue Jays, should take advantage of that. 

In Berrios’ last start, he surrendered six runs in the first four innings before he was yanked. The start before that, he gave up two runs to the Orioles, while his teammates scored six runs by the end of the fifth. He has given up two or more runs before the fifth inning in four of his last six starts. 

Gonzalez has only pitched in three games, but he gave up three runs to the Cardinals before the fifth in his first start as a Brewer last week. In his two other starts, before he was waived by the Twins, he gave up three in the first inning to the Tampa Bay Rays and three to the Blue Jays before the fourth. 

In the Jays’ last five games, they have put up two or more runs in four of their last five games, including the last two games against the Brewers. 

In Milwaukee’s last five games, they have scored two or more by the end of the fifth inning four times. 

Pick: First five innings Over five runs (-105 at DraftKings)

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