Despite winning the first game of the series on Thursday night, the Yankees have dropped two straight to the Astros following a 3-0 loss to Houston on Saturday.
Gerrit Cole was great, but the Astros' staff was even better, pitching a complete-game no-hitter. Can the Yankees bounce back on Sunday or will Houston take the series with a third straight win?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees on June 26.
Astros vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Even though Houston is gotten the better of New York in the last two matches, the Yankees have opened as -165 favorites with the Astros coming back as +145 dogs. The total has been set at 8.5, half a point more than Saturday's contest.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 6/25/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-SW, YES
Astros vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy (6-3, 4.68 ERA): After three solid seasons with the Astros from 2019-2021, Urquidy has struggled thus far in 2022. The 27-year-old right-handy owns just a 4.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through 67 1-3 innings of work. Although he's coming off limiting the Mets to just one run on June 21, Urquidy will be in tough against the Bronx Bombers on Sunday.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (6-3, 2.31 ERA): Cortes continues to be one of the surprise stories of 2022, leading all Yankees starters in ERA. The 27-year-old lefty only lasted 4 1-3 innings in his last outing against the Rays, giving up four runs on six hits. Then again, that was only the second time he's allowed that many runs in 13 starts this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jeremy Pena SS (Out), Josh James RP (Out).
Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Zach Britton RP (Out), Chad Green RP (Out), Jonathan Loasiga RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 3-0-1 in the Yankees' last five starts against a starter with a WHIP above 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Following the Yankees' incredible comeback in Game 1 of the series, you'd think they would have the momentum in the next two against a deflated Astros team.
But remember, this is the same Houston team that has been to the ALCS in five consecutive seasons now and is seemingly unfazed by any sort of pressure thrown at them. Dusty Baker's group rallied on Friday and Saturday, limiting the Pinstripes to a grand total of just one run altogether.
Cristian Javier went seven innings of shutout no-hit ball, striking out 13 before handing the ball off to Hector Neris and eventually Ryan Pressly for the save. This was the first time the Yankees had been no-hit since all the way back in 2003.
Rarely will you see the Yankees bats neutralized the way they were on Saturday, but New York should bounce back against Jose Urquidy whose ERA has ballooned in comparison to previous years.
While Urquidy can throw five different pitches, he uses the fastball 53.3% of the time according to Baseball Savant. This probably won't play well against a Yankees team that leads the MLB in team home runs, with Aaron Judge leading the league in dingers at 27. New York is extremely disciplined at the plate too, as they lead the American League in walks as well.
While I don't necessarily buy that Nestor Cortes Jr. will be one of the top AL ERA leaders by season's end, he is by far the superior pitcher over Urquidy. Add in the fact that the Yanks' talented bats are bound to respond after being no-hit, and I'll be taking the Pinstripes in the series finale.
Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-165 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
I always love taking a team to bounce back at the plate following a shutout performance. In this case, with Urquidy and his 4.68 ERA facing the number one offense in the AL that just got punched in the mouth — you know Aaron Boone's club is going to be extra motivated to get some runners home.
Judge is starting to get more help from bottom-of-the-order players like Aaron Hicks who is really starting to heat up in June. From June 2 to 24, Hicks had a slash line of .286/.384./429. Matt Carpenter has also added a nice left-handed boost to the lineup, hitting six home runs with an OBP of .390 through 14 games with the Yanks.
Meanwhile, for the Astros, they can keep losing players like George Springer and Carlos Correa in free agency but it doesn't really seem to have much of an effect on their performance. Dusty Baker's squad has the fifth-best slugging percentage in the majors, and the third-most home runs, led by DH Yordan Alvarez with 22.
Alvarez has been simply incredible for Houston as its cleanup man, with an OPS above 1.000 that leads the entire MLB. After right-fielder Kyle Tucker got off to a sluggish start in April, the lefty bat has also been on fire, batting over .300 in the month of June.
Between the Yankees and Astros, there's simply too much star power for this matchup to go Under for a third straight game.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Not only does Aaron Judge lead the league in home runs, but he also ranks first in runs overall at 58 in 69 games.
Judge is already cashing the Over 0.5 runs prop at a 84% clip this season. With Urquidy starting on the bump, taking the current AL MVP odds leader to cross home at least once seems extremely plausible.
The Yankees superstar usually bats second in the order, meaning he gets at least four plate appearances a night, and sometimes, even five. Considering we're banking on a high-scoring affair from New York overall, Judge will most likely get to the plate more times than usual with innings running long in the bottom half.
Aaron Judge Prop: Over 0.5 runs (-148)
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