Sunday Night Baseball features a rubber match between two of the best teams in the league.
The Atlanta Braves got the best of the Los Angeles Dodgers last year in the NLCS on the road to a World Series Title. Atlanta took Saturday’s Game 2 by a score of 5-3 as Max Fried allowed two earned runs over 6 2-3 innings. Spencer Strider gets the nod tonight.
Los Angeles has won seven of its last 10 games and will turn to Tony Gonsolin for Game 3. He puts his perfect 9-0 record on the line Sunday night.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Braves on Sunday, June 26.
Be sure to also check out our favorite MLB betting player prop picks for tonight's matchup.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves opened at +109 but the line has come in a little bit. They currently can be had between +104 and -105 depending on the book. The total has been set at 8.5 across all books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 6/26/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dodgers vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Dodgers vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58 ERA): Don’t look now but Gonsolin has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season. In a remarkable display of consistency, he has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season — and that’s across 12 starts! He typically doesn’t pitch very deep into games, as he’s only gone past the sixth inning once (6 1-3 innings against the Los Angeles Angeles on June 14). His 2.80 xERA and 3.44 FIP are both solid but indicate regression. He struggled with walks a year ago (14.2%) but has brought that number down to 8.1% this season.
Spencer Strider (3-2, 3.40 ERA): Strider has operated mainly out of the bullpen this year but joined the rotation a month ago and is fully stretched out — he’s not an opener. In his last start, he was rocked by the San Francisco Giants for six earned runs across 3 2-3 innings. Before that, he threw 106 pitches across 5 2-3 innings of two-run ball in his second-most recent outing. His 3.15 xERA and 2.36 FIP are both excellent, as is his 3.69% K rate. His main determinant is that he issues too many walks (11.3% walk rate).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: Mookie Betts RF (Out), Daniel Hudson P (Out), Tommy Kahnle P (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Out), Edwin Rios 3B (Out), Caleb Ferguson P (Out).
Braves: Manny Pina C (Out), Eddie Rosario RF (Out), Tyler Matzek P (Out), Ozzie Albies 2B (Out), Ronald Acuna Jr. RF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves
Dodgers vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Braves have been a cash cow lately against right-handed pitching, going 11-2 in their last 13 games. That trend will be put to the test against the Los Angeles’ Tony Gonsolin, who is tied for the MLB lead with nine wins and has yet to lose a game.
Atlanta has also been a solid bet at home, going 11-2 in its last 13 home games.
The Dodgers are a very good baseball team that is high up on a short list of 2022 World Series betting favorites. However, they’ve struggled against tough competition lately, going just 2-8 in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Atlanta has been a tough place for L.A. to play — going just 1-6 in its last seven meetings in A-Town.
One of these teams has been significantly overvalued this season by the betting markets, while the other has been tabbed currently. If you bet $100 on the Dodgers moneyline every game this season, you’d be in the red with -$726 owed to the books. The Braves have been treading water ($66) this year.
Gonsolin has been excellent this season, but his peripheral numbers are mostly in line with Spencer Strider and I don’t see a huge advantage for L.A. in the starting pitching department. These are two quality arms. Strider’s FIP (2.36) is actually below Gonsolin’s (3.44) while most of the other metrics are close.
Both lineups have been performing at a Top 5 rate over the last 10 days, so I don’t give a substantial edge to either team at the plate.
It’s a very close matchup and should be a fantastic game of baseball on Sunday night. With all things being relatively equal, I have to side with the team that has NOT been significantly overvalued this season.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (+104 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Both starting pitchers have done a commendable job not allowing opposing batters to square up the ball — Gonsolin has a 3.9% barrel rate, while Strider’s is 4.1%.
Gonsolin has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season. He has been remarkably consistent and I’m not betting many Overs in games that he pitches until we start to see a change.
Strider has been a revelation this season for the Braves as a 23-year-old who has contributed both out of the pen and in the rotation. He’s looked good in both roles and his peripherals are greatly headlined by a 2.36 FIP and a 36.9% K rate.
Both teams possess a Top 10 bullpen. The Dodgers have a 3.38 ERA in relief while the Braves have a 3.03 bullpen ERA.
The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and has cashed that way in five of the last six times these teams have met in Atlanta.
Both lineups are capable of scoring runs in any matchup, but this isn’t the spot where I’m targeting runs. These squads are trending toward the Under when they play one another, there are two good starting pitchers on the mound, and both teams have a respectable pen.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Gonsolin has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season, and he has a good bullpen behind him.
Strider has a great 2.36 FIP and strikes out a lot of batters, which should play against a Dodgers' lineup with a 24.8% K rate over the last 10 days. The Braves also have one of MLB’s best bullpens.
These teams are 4-0 to the Under in their last four meetings, and I’m backing that trend to continue on Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
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