We have a busy MLB betting slate today, including the series finale between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox.
BoSox starter Walker Buehler has had a tough time finding the plate lately and my Blue Jays predictions expect Toronto to make him pay, especially Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with his great plate discipline and ability to get on base. Read more in my MLB picks below.
Blue Jays predictions for June 29
- Best bet
Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
(-125 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs
Kirk Over 0.5 singles
(+213 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vladdy finds home
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-125 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays look to bounce back with the series on the line after getting smoked 15-1 in yesterday's ball game. Luckily for them, it’s Walker Buehler’s turn in the Boston Red Sox rotation.
Buehler is not the same pitcher who was a stud in L.A. for years. He’s 5-5 on the year with a 6.29 ERA, allowing an OBP of .372, while posting a career-low 1.9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His underlying numbers have been just as ugly, ranking in the 13th percentile in xERA with an xBA of .271 (24th percentile), while allowing a lot of contact with a rather high barrel rate.
Furthermore, he’s been in a serious funk since the calendar flipped to June. He has an 11.57 ERA in four starts this month, giving up 23 runs and five homers while walking 14 batters in just 16 1/3 innings.
Enter Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s had a strong June with an .384 OBP while drawing one more walk than he has strikeouts (10:9). He’s also crossed home plate 17 times in 23 games this month and with Buehler's propensity to allow high run totals, I expect Vladdy to cross home plate today.
Additionally, Vladdy’s underlying metrics suggest there’s a breakout coming. Despite hitting just .280 on the season, his xBA is the best in the majors at .325. His batted ball profile matches up well to Buehler too with a high barrel rate and the ability to square up the baseball and work the count for walks.
These advantages should lead to Vladdy getting on base today and in position to score. With the way Kirk, Springer, and Clement have been hitting behind him, all of which have a wRC+ above 118, he should be able to add to his season run total.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 singles
We'll continue to fade Buehler and take the Over on his earned run total of 2.5. He’s given up 21 earned runs over his last four starts and the Jays offense ranks in the Top 10 in runs scored this month.
Lastly, I’m taking Alejandro Kirk to record a single. He’s batting .349 in June, and with Buehler giving up a lot of soft contact and Kirk's ability to square up and barrel the baseball, he should be able to find the soft spots in the outfield. I’m betting the single specifically to get a bit more value, as 21 of his 30 hits in June have been singles.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Saturday, June 28, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Eric Lauer (4-1, 2.21 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (5-5, 6.29 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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