The YRFI-NRFI props have been good to me over the last few weeks, so let's try to keep the good juju rolling!
Here are my favorite NRFI predictions and MLB picks for today's slate, featuring a prediction for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.
Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today
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Guardians at White Sox: NRFI (-142)
This one may be a sweat, but I think it is the right side.
Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has been vulnerable in the first inning, allowing eight runs across 11 starts this season. However, the Cleveland Guardians have also struggled to generate early offense, ranking 24th in first inning runs and averaging just 0.37 runs in the first inning on the road.
Surprisingly, the White Sox have been even worse at home than they are on the road when it comes to early scoring, producing only 0.43 first inning runs at home.
They draw Parker Messick, who enters today with an elite pitcher rating and has yet to allow a first inning run through 15 starts. Opposing hitters are batting just .100 with a .182 OBP and .140 SLG against him in the opening frame.
I think the top half will be the sweatiest part of this bet, but I still believe the NRFI is the right move here.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, CLEG
Rangers at Marlins: YRFI (-121)
I am not going to lie to you, Cal Quantrill got me here.
The Texas Rangers starter brings a poorly-rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact into this evening, as he draws three elite rated Miami Marlins bats and two more with strong ratings. This will be his first start of the season after working out of the bullpen for Texas.
He owns a 3.68 lifetime ERA, while opposing hitters have posted a .410 SLG and .703 OPS. With the Marlins offense seeing the ball well lately, I trust them in this spot against a struggling veteran profile.
On the other side, Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Fish. So far this season, he has allowed 10 runs through 16 innings, carrying a 5.72 ERA. Opposing hitters are slashing .308/.446/.764 against him.
The Rangers bring two strongly-rated bats to the table, which I think is enough to do damage against the former Cy Young winner.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, RSN
Diamondbacks at Cardinals: YRFI (-121)
This matchup as a whole sets up for an offensive spike, with seven hitters in this game grading out as at least strong on Batters-Box. On the current season dataset, there are five elite-rated bats and two more in the strong tier.
On the mound, the Arizona Diamondbacks send left hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled in the first inning with a 6.00 ERA, allowing 10 runs across 15 starts. Opposing hitters are posting a .276 batting average, .382 OBP, .534 SLG, and .917 OPS against him. He has also issued 10 walks over that span.
The St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy, who has been more stable early, allowing six runs through 14 starts with a 3.86 ERA and just six walks in that sample.
Arizona has not been swinging the hottest bats of late, but the matchup sets up well enough against Leahy to keep them in play. On the other side, the Cardinals have been red-hot, which is ultimately the angle I am leaning on to do the scoring here.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
- NRFI/YRFI picks: 7-2, +2.64 units
What is a NRFI prediction?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) picks add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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