Astros vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: The Bludgeoning Continues in Boston

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox continue a three-game series this afternoon at Fenway Park.

The Astros took game one of the series in blow-out fashion by a score of 13-5. They followed that up with another win last night. Houston's offense has been rolling lately as it barrels to the finish line. It's scored double-digit runs in two of its previous four games and nine in one of the others.

The Astros find themselves amid a highly competitive divisional race in the AL West, where three teams are all separated by just one game. For the Red Sox, it's starting to feel like its hopes of making the playoffs aren't happening.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros on Wednesday, August 30.

Astros vs Red Sox odds

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Astros vs Red Sox predictions

It's hard to imagine many hotter teams than Houston right now.

The Astros have won four straight games and eclipsed their team total in all of them. Stretch that out even longer, and the Astros have gone Over their team total in 15 of the last 22 games. We should have seen this coming, and I'm not stepping in front of this train. I'm returning to the well this afternoon and rolling with Houston moneyline as my best bet.

Kutter Crawford will take the mound for the Red Sox, and it isn't easy to pick too much on him. The numbers are impressive across the board. But (and you knew that it was coming) there is one decisive weakness for Crawford that is a strength for the Astros. 

Barrel rate has been an issue for Crawford throughout the year. In totality, he's induced a ton of soft contact, but he's struggled some against baseball's higher-end power bats. And "higher-end power bats" is precisely how I would classify this Astros lineup. They are doing what they typically do around postseason time and have four players in their lineup ranking in the upper echelon of baseball in barrel rate. They rank about average in this category for the season, but that doesn't fully consider who they've been over the last few weeks. And that team is hitting the ball very hard on a nightly basis. Houston should be able to get the better of Crawford here, and I don't think it'll take much to get the win.

That's because Framber Valdez is on the mound for Houston. For most of the season, he flirted with Cy Young contending status and had a monthly ERA of around 2.5. But then he had a terrible July and has worked to get back to his pre-All-Star form since. I'm bullish on what he can do to end the season, and I like the matchup here.

Valdez hasn't been elite in August, but he's certainly been better than he was a month ago and is showing signs of improvement. He'll enter this one off a scoreless start against the Detroit Tigers where he got ground balls at a high clip. That's the key for him.

The metrics will never be in love with Valdez, but none of that matters when you produce ground balls around 60% of the time. That's what he has a chance to get back to doing. He should have some success against the Red Sox team in doing so, too. The Red Sox hit the ground ball at a slightly above-league-average rate, but with its offense struggling lately, that number has increased. If Valdez can continue to see those struggles, then he has a chance to be his dominant self again.

This is a play around a few things. My projections made the Astros around -150 favorites, so getting them about 15 cents cheaper is undoubtedly valuable. Additionally, the Astros look like a team priming up for another postseason run, and the Red Sox look like a team fading. 

My best bet: Astros moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Astros vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Astros moneyline

Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases

Adam Duvall to get a hit

+300 at bet365

Kyle Tucker has the third-highest barrel rate on the Astros roster, but what's even better about this matchup is he's one of the league's best fastball pitchers. He'll see a good amount tonight, and he has the second-highest run value on the team, a top-five hard-hit rate, and the second-highest batting average — the only Astro in the Top 5 of all metrics.

We're polishing off things with Adam Duvall to get a hit. I saw more of an edge here than bases, but this plays directly into the narrative of this matchup. Valdez should have solid success against much of this lineup by inducing the ground ball. But Duvall is where he may have an issue as he hits them at a team-low 20% rate. With Valdez pitching largely to contact, this plays into Duvall's favor.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

On paper, you could make the case that these pitchers are even or close to even, but the recent play of both teams is too much to ignore. Sure, there's some bias there. You naturally have some respect for the defending World Series Champion more than a team that has underwhelmed over the past few seasons. The recent trends, without history, are just as strong.

Boston is fading and has lost three straight, while Houston has won four in a row. One clubhouse has negative vibes after likely seeing its playoff dreams dashed, while the other one has hopes of winning a division. I'll trust the team that's rolling right now.

My projection for this total perfectly aligned with the 9.5-10 out there, so I don't have much of an opinion tonight. There's been a solid trend to the Over in the last several meetings between these two teams. The previous 10  have gone Over at a clip of 8-2. However, the Astros have done much of the heavy lifting in those totals — especially in the last two games. They'll have the most challenging assignment of the series tonight against Crawford, which gives me some pause on taking a side.

Trend to know

The Astros have hit the moneyline in 41 of their last 66 away games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox

Astros vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (9-9, 3.40 ERA):  August has still been bumpy, but it's been better than July, and he's posted an ERA that hovers over 3.00. He's also coming off one of his best performances of the season. In his last outing, Valdez looked like the elite groundball-producing pitcher he's been and posted six scoreless innings against the Tigers.

Kutter Crawford (6-6, 3.65 ERA): The metrics are impressive across the board and his ability to induce soft contact is a highlight. Crawford has average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both in the Top 20% of baseball. In addition, there's not much to suggest that Crawford should fall off to end the season with an expected FIP and an expected ERA that align closely with his actual production.

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