The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers could be battling it out for American League West supremacy all season long.
The division rivals will face off for the first time since the Rangers took down the Astros in six games during the American League Championship Series when they begin a three-game set at Globe Life Field on Friday night.
Can Texas prove it’s still the best in the West? Or will Houston exact some revenge? I break down the MLB odds and bring you the best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Rangers on Friday, April 5.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers predictions
Game 1 of this series features a pitching matchup of a pair of guys who weren’t part of the equation in the American League Championship Series as Hunter Brown toes the rubber against Cody Bradford.
Both teams are hoping these guys can make an impact in 2024, particularly in the case of Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown.
The 25-year-old Brown was once a top pitching prospect for the Astros and is hoping to improve on his 2023 campaign where he pitched to a 4.27 expected ERA and allowed a .240 opponent expected batting average. Those numbers ranked in the 45th and 56th percentile in the majors respectively.
It should come as no surprise that this pummeling Texas Rangers lineup accounted for some of that damage done against Brown last season. While he allowed just five runs (three earned) in two starts against the Rangers last season, the lineup totaled 15 hits over 11 innings.
Current Rangers are 20-60 with four doubles, a home run, and a 13.1% strikeout rate against Brown. That works out to a .384 expected batting average and a .626 expected slugging percentage.
And the Rangers have just kept swinging to start the season. Texas is putting up 5.8 runs per game while ranking fourth in wRC+ through the early part of this season.
When you consider the Astros bullpen has had some issues early on this season, ranking 18th with a 4.20 xFIP then the Rangers team total of 4.5 suddenly looks a little low. It looks even lower when you see the Over is priced at +105. The Rangers have gone Over this number in three of their six games this season, I’m betting they get No. 4 tonight.
My best bet: Rangers team total Over 4.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers team total Over 4.5
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases
Cody Bradford Under 3.5 strikeouts
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One of the Rangers who could do some of that damage tonight is Marcus Semien. The Rangers’ second baseman has been a little quiet to start the season but is coming off a Silver Slugging season where he led the AL in hits and runs, hit 29 home runs, and 100 RBIs.
Semien is also 6-11 with a double in his career vs. Brown. That’s good for a .470 xBA and a .777 xSLG. Add Over 1.5 total bases for Semien to this same-game parlay.
And let’s close this SGP out with Rangers starter Cody Bradford going Under 3.5 strikeouts. The Astros have been one of the most patient lineups in baseball over the past several seasons and early this year has been no different as they have the third-lowest k-rate.
Bradford has a below-average 22.1% k-rate in his career and pitching more than five innings is unlikely in this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers opened this AL West matchup as +110 home underdogs and it's the Astros seeing the early money with the line now at Texas +120.
- The Astros are favored here because Brown has the better pedigree as a starter.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and early bettors have smashed the Over, with the number now at 10 as of Friday afternoon.
- These AL West rivals have played Over this number in six of their last eight regular-season meetings.
Trend to know
The Astros and Rangers have gone 10-3-1 to the Over in the last 14 meetings including the postseason. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers
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Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Hunter Brown (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Brown got his 2024 campaign off to a solid start allowing just one unearned run on four hits while striking out five over four innings against the New York Yankees. But as noted, the Rangers have given him some problems in his career.
Cody Bradford (1-0, 3.60 ERA): Bradford will be making just his 10th career start and was solid in his first start of the season. The left-hander allowed two runs on three hits while striking out six in five innings vs. the Chicago Cubs.
