The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers begin a four-game series in Arlington on Friday night. This is a marquee clash between the reigning World Series-winning Astros and a Rangers squad that has been among the best teams in the majors this season.
Texas is expected to get the win tonight and extend its lead atop the NL West. MLB betting lines opened with the Rangers as -175 home favorites for this clash with the Over/Under at 9. Here are my best free Houston vs. Texas MLB picks and predictions for June 30.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers predictions
The Rangers are giving the pill to veteran righthander Jon Gray who has a 2.89 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP in 81 innings this year.
Gray has been dealing lately, pitching to a 1.97 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an OBA of .180 over his last eight starts. The Rangers are 7-2 in Gray's previous nine starts and in the two defeats during that span, they lost 1-0.
The Astros are responding with 29-year-old rookie Ronel Blanco. In four career starts, all coming this month, Blanco has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with a 6.84 FIP. The right-hander is coming off the best performance of his career, limiting the Dodgers to two hits across six innings (albeit with both hits being dingers). However, his terrible barrel rate and poor control are cause for concern and if Houston's rotation wasn't decimated by injuries, he wouldn't be starting in the bigs.
He'll be facing a Texas lineup that has been crushing the ball. The Rangers are second in the majors in wOBA (.346), third in hard hit rate (42.9%), and seventh in barrel rate (9.5%).
The Stros have been far less productive at the dish, ranking 18th in wOBA (.314), 22nd in hard hit rate (38.5%), and 23rd in barrel rate (7.3%). It also doesn't help that they're missing their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez for another few weeks.
While the Rangers have a clear advantage when it comes to hitting and starting pitching, the Astros do have the edge in the bullpen. Houston's relievers are seventh in the majors with a collective 3.64 ERA while the Rangers bullpen is 24th with an ERA of 4.37 and has seen that number rise to 4.91 since the start of May.
I'll eliminate the bullpens from the betting equation and back the home side to have the lead after five innings.
My best bet: First five innings run line Texas -0.5 (-130 at PointsBet)
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay
5 Innings Run Line Rangers -0.5
Jon Gray Over 1.5 walks
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Gray has been pitching very well, but his walk rate sits right around the MLB average. He has walked at least two batters in four of his last seven starts and taking the Over 1.5 on his walks gives a nice multiplier with our previous play.
Corey Seager has been on fire lately. The four-time All-Star is slashing .369/.440/.650 this month. He also crushes the ball at home where he slugs .706 and as a left-handed hitter he excels against righties like Blanco.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Texas opened as -155 favorites but money has come in, and it's now anywhere from -165 to -188 depending on the book.
The Rangers have lost four of their last six games but still have the third-best record in the AL at 49-32. Despite highly-prized acquisition Jacob deGrom getting shut down for Tommy John surgery in May, the Rangers have shown massive improvement from last year.
Gray and Nathan Eovaldi have pitched like aces and the lineup has been raking with sluggers like Marcus Semien and Seager enjoying bounce-back campaigns.
The Astros trail the Rangers by five games in the division standings. They are sitting in the bottom half of the league in most hitting metrics but their biggest issue has been injuries to their rotation which is why Blanco has been called up. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are done for the season while Jose Urquidy is sidelined until late July.
The total opened at 9 and has stayed steady as of 11 a.m. ET. The Over has gone 16-5-5 in the Rangers' last 26 home games.
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Trend to know
The Astros are 1-6 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP below 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers
Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, June 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Ronel Blanco (1-0, 4.63 ERA): The 29-year-old rookie pitched 6 1/3 innings in relief last year and began this season in the bullpen as well before being demoted to the minors at the beginning of May. After a pair of outstanding starts at Triple A Sugarland, he was called back up this month and brought into the rotation. In four starts since being recalled, he has pitched to a 4.76 ERA. Blanco is in the Bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate and the Bottom 20th percentile in expected ERA (5.16).
Jon Gray (6-3, 2.89 ERA): The 31-year-old spent most of his career with the Rockies and despite the hitter-friendly venue at Coors Field, he was generally one of Colorado's most reliable arms. In his first season with the Rangers last year he pitched to a 3.96 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. He's been even better this season and is coming off an outing against the Yankees where he scattered three hits across five innings of shutout ball.
