Tonight's interleague battle at Petco Park features Hunter Brown taking the ball for Houston opposite of Michael King, and my Astros vs. Padres predictions expect the offenses to rise to the occasion against both starters.
Find out more in our MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.
Astros vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 runs (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Despite Monday’s game ending 3-1 — which was disappointing for those of us who backed the Under — the San Diego Padres continued their strong performance at the plate, collecting 13 hits but leaving eight runners on base.
In fact, both teams left eight runners on base, making it a strong showing for each despite the final score. Given the playoff-like intensity of the series, I'm not ready to dismiss the possibility of more low-scoring games just yet.
Like Monday's starter Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown will run into some issues against a Padres team that has been one of the best in baseball in limiting strikeouts – something that spells trouble for a guy who’s been steadily cruising in that department since June.
Although Brown boasts a strong .227 xBA for the season, that number has climbed to .236 in September. Additionally, the Padres have hit .270 against groundball pitchers like Brown.
Michael King finds himself in a similar situation as a strikeout pitcher facing an Astros team that doesn’t K often. Like Brown, King’s expected stats have declined over the past month and a half. He'll also be up against an Astros lineup that ranks eighth in xBA against sinkers and second against four-seamers, which could hamper his ability to pitch well to contact.
I expect more hits from both of these teams and more luck with runners on base.
Astros vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Hunter Brown Under 4.5 strikeouts
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases
After Arrighetti failed to hit the Over on his strikeout prop with just four punchouts on Monday, we’ve now seen just one starting pitcher rack up five or more against the Padres in the last eight games.
Meanwhile, San Diego has posted the second-best strikeout rate in the league over the past two weeks, trailing only Houston with a 17.8% strikeout rate.
Yordan Alvarez has combined for a .322 xBA against four-seamers and sinkers this year, rocking a mark of .387 since the start of August. The Astros slugger has reached 2+ total bases eight times in 14 games this month, hitting .268 and slugging .625 over this span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Padres odds
Astros vs Padres live odds
Astros vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -105 | San Diego -115
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+160) | San Diego +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Astros vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- DraftKings is reporting that 52% of the bets and 46% of the money are on the Astros.
- The total remains at the opening line of 7.5 after a momentary dip to seven, but there’s been some movement towards the Under ever since.
- Despite commanding just 59% of the tickets, the Over has accounted for 75% of the handle at DraftKings.
Astros vs Padres trend
San Diego has hit the game total Over in 43 of its last 73 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Padres.
Astros vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TruTV |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (11-8, 3.59 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (12-9, 3.06 ERA) |
Astros vs Padres latest injuries
Astros vs Padres weather
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