The Houston Astros earned a huge win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the opening game of this weekend series out west, and now they’ll look for the victory behind their ace.
We’ll explain in our Astros vs. Dodgers predictions why L.A.’s taxed pitching staff should once again be called into question on Saturday and how Houston’s recent run of form should give it the edge.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, July 5.
Astros vs Dodgers prediction
My Astros vs Dodgers best bet: Astros moneyline (+124 at FanDuel)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are once again reaping what they’ve sown with a very short rotation due to injury. They’ll throw Shohei Ohtani on Saturday evening as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery, and while it’s his birthday, he’s still unlikely to pitch beyond two innings, according to Dave Roberts.
That means the onus is once again going to be on this bullpen to keep the opposition at bay. While their top three high-leverage arms didn’t work on Friday, they were still forced to use several relievers for a considerable number of pitches after Ben Casparius failed to put L.A. in a winning position.
So, the Dodgers will likely be left with Justin Wrobleski – a young left-hander with poor numbers – behind Ohtani for the bulk of the innings. The bullpen is rested this week thanks to L.A.’s healthy starting pitching performing decently well, but after it was taxed on Friday, it’s staring down the barrel of another busy weekend with Ohtani and a bullpen game to follow on Sunday.
Regardless of whether or not Wrobleski is saved for the series finale, I’ve got my doubts about this plan the Dodgers will be rolling with. L.A.’s bullpen has barely been better than the league average over the last 30 days thanks to this increased workload, and Houston’s offense has continued to improve, ranking fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Now, the Dodgers don’t exactly struggle against ground-ball pitchers, but they’ve been decidedly worse against these types with a league-leading .810 OPS in the reverse split. Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez also hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this season, but he’s improved with every passing month and has found an increasing number of strikeouts with the trade-off being more walks.
L.A.’s plate discipline has declined in those aforementioned last two weeks, with its walk rate sitting under 9% and its strikeout rate at 22%. That would seem to put Valdez in a favorable position, and with his offense entering with a sustainable profile that’s been centered around a ton of contact, much of it going for extra bases.
I will once again be fading L.A.. This team has too much to worry about when it comes to its pitching, and its offense has certainly cooled off of late as well.
Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Shohei Ohtani 2+ Batter Strikeouts
Framber Valdez 6+ Strikeouts
We’ll have some fun here and bet on two different kinds of strikeout props with Framber Valdez holding strong numbers in this area during June.
For his career, Valdez owns an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate against the current Dodgers roster and has maintained a clip over 26% in the last two months. He’s now cleared this number in eight of his previous 11 starts, and while L.A. isn’t traditionally a team to target from a strikeout standpoint, its numbers have been declining in the last few weeks.
One man who’s had a particularly tough time against Valdez is Shohei Ohtani, who’s punched out 12 times in 43 plate appearances versus Valdez, good for a brutal 27.9% strikeout rate. He’s struck out at least two times in each of his three starts on the bump this season as well, which is significant because these outings represent outliers in the grand scheme of his last month.
Astros vs Dodgers odds
Astros vs Dodgers live odds
Astros vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston (+123) | Los Angeles (-150)
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-174) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+144)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs Dodgers trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Astros vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 7-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Astros starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.73 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Shohei Ohtani (0-0, 2.25 ERA) |
Astros vs Dodgers latest injuries
Astros vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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