The Houston Astros kick off a three-game series tonight in Southern California against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
While Fourth of July games often promise fireworks, my Astros vs. Dodgers predictions lean toward the Under.
Here are my MLB picks for Friday, July 4.
Astros vs Dodgers prediction
My Astros vs Dodgers best bet: Under 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
If it wasn’t for two bad starts (OK, really bad), Lance McCullers Jr. would be having a fine season for the Houston Astros.
The diminutive hurler has allowed 15 earned runs in two starts against the Cubs and the Reds, ballooning his ERA to 6.61. Outside of those two disastrous outings, his ERA is a respectable 2.79.
McCullers has proven to be a quality starting pitcher in his career with a 3.62 ERA across eight seasons, so the two blow-up outings should be treated more as an exception than the norm.
The veteran’s 102 Stuff+ is more palatable, and he has arguably the MLB’s best bullpen (league-low 3.10 SIERA) behind him.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers turn to right-hander Ben Casparius. The 26-year-old is also coming off a rough outing (six earned runs in four innings), but we should similarly expect a return to form.
The former UConn product currently boasts an impressive 3.16 xERA and 2.74 FIP. He suppresses loud contact (96th percentile hard-hit rate), avoids walks (5.2% walk rate), and generates whiffs (13.5% swinging strike rate).
Casparius’ 120 Pitching+ ranks tied for ninth in the MLB with Zack Wheeler, so runs will be at a premium for both teams tonight.
Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Ben Casparius 4+ strikeouts
Andy Pages 2+ total bases
Under 9.5
Casparius generates a 75th percentile whiff rate and will have the platoon advantage against seven or eight Astros (24.6% K rate against right-handed hitters).
Andy Pages has been red hot, recording 2+ total bases in 11 of his last 17 games. The breakout star sports reverse splits (136 wRC+ against RHP) and rakes at home (163 wRC+).
Astros vs Dodgers odds
Astros vs Dodgers live odds
Astros vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +145 | Los Angeles -170
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-130) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Astros vs Dodgers trend
Houston has hit the Under in 33 of its last 54 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Astros vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, SNLA |
| Astros starting pitcher | Lance McCullers Jr. (1-3, 6.61 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Ben Casparius (6-2, 3.97 ERA) |
Astros vs Dodgers latest injuries
Astros vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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