It’s been a long season already for fans of the Los Angeles Angels (17-28), who are set to face the Texas Rangers (23-23) at Globe Life Field tonight.
According to MLB odds, the defending World Series champs are listed as -135 favorites on the moneyline. My Angels vs. Rangers predictions take a closer look at the First Five Innings market in a matchup that poses a discrepancy in the quality of the respective starting pitchers.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks on Saturday, May 18.
Angels vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Angels F5 moneyline (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
Take a glance at Patrick Sandoval’s 5.00 ERA across nine starts and you might need to repress some acid reflux. However, the Los Angeles Angels starter has perhaps been a bit unlucky and his performance isn’t as poor as his ERA would indicate, creating a sliver of value in the betting market.
His 3.49 xERA and 2.77 FIP are both far more stomachable, and most projection systems call for him to finish with an ERA in the high 3.00s or low 4.00s, which is more in line with prior expectations. The 27-year-old hurler has been snakebitten by poor batted ball luck, surrendering an absurd .373 BABIP.
I’ll bet on positive regression for the left-hander, who still has a lot of positives going for him. He makes batters miss with regularity (12.3% swinging strike rate) and suppresses hard contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity (87.2 mph), 89th percentile in barrel rate (3.7%), and the 79th percentile in hard-hit percentage (33.8%).
Sandoval faces a Texas Rangers lineup that has struggled against southpaws, posting a scrawny 82 wRC+ (23rd) and .285 wOBA (21st) in May. He’s also found success against the Rangers in the past, with their projected lineup just 8-for-59 (.136 BA) in their career against him.
On the flip side, Texas trots out an uninspirational starter in Jose Urena. We last saw him post a grotesque 6.45 ERA, 5.77 xERA, and 7.28 ERA across 44 2/3 innings in 2023, so I’m not buying his 3.62 ERA so far this year. The Angels have been fine against right-handers in 2024, sporting a 103 wRC+ and .317 wOBA in May.
I’ll target the F5 innings at plus money for the visitors instead of the full game to avoid the bullpens, which have been a mess for both teams this year.
Angels vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Angels F5 moneyline
Sandoval 5+ strikeouts / Sandoval to record the win
Jose Urena Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
This is a correlated four-leg SGP that bets on Sandoval regressing to the mean against a Rangers lineup that has struggled against lefties. The southpaw has recorded at least six strikeouts in five of his nine starts and I like the plus odds on his K prop, in what’s another example of him being underrated by the books.
Urena hasn’t finished with an ERA below 5.00 in five straight seasons, and the underlying metrics have always supported him being a woeful option on the mound. What’s to like? Nothing for this bettor.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Angels vs Rangers odds
Angels vs Rangers live odds
Angels vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-165) | Texas -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +120 | Texas -145
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Angels vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers have dropped seven of their last 10 games, including last night's 9-3 defeat to the Halos.
- Texas has tended to play in lower-scoring games at home, going 7-15-1 O/U at Globe Life Field.
- The Rangers have hit their F5 team total Under in 14 of their last 19 home games.
- The Angels have gone Under the total in three of the last four games that Sandoval has started.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Angels vs Rangers trend
The Angels have successfully cashed the F5 moneyline in five of their last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Rangers
Angels vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Patrick Sandoval (2-6, 5.00 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jose Urena (1-3, 3.62 ERA) |
Angels vs Rangers latest injuries
Angels vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
