Angels vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Canning Flashes More Strikeout Stuff

Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels will look to continue their playoff push as they visit the Atlanta Braves for the start of a three-game series on Monday night.

The Angels have bolstered their roster with recent trades in an attempt to build around Ohtani, and perhaps convince their incomparable two-way superstar to resign with the team after the season. Meanwhile, the Braves have been the best team in the majors this year, and hold an 11.5-game lead in the NL East. 

Tonight’s game starts a difficult stretch for Los Angeles, and while it will have a lot of new firepower going forward, the team is relying on Griffin Canning to take the ball tonight.

We’ll take a look at how Canning stacks up against the Atlanta lineup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Braves below.

Angels vs Braves odds

Angels vs Braves predictions

Now 27 years old and in the fourth year of his MLB career, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Griffin Canning. He’s a pitcher with some obvious limitations, allowing too many home runs and other hard-hit balls, and often struggling with his control.

However, Canning also has some strengths that have allowed him to get a fair number of innings in the majors. He’s an excellent fielder, winning a Gold Glove in the shortened 2020 season. More relevant for us tonight, Canning has also been good at striking out batters ever since his rookie campaign in 2019. 

For his career, Canning is striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. That number is up a bit to 9.7 per nine innings this year, but that undersells what he’s been doing in recent weeks. 

Over his last seven starts, Canning is punching out 11.89 hitters per nine innings. Over that time, he’s averaging 6.85 strikeouts per game, and that’s including a disastrous outing on July 7 against the Dodgers in which he lasted less than three innings without a single strikeout. 

This isn’t to say that Canning has been particularly effective overall during this stretch. He’s gone 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA over those seen starts — good enough to stick around in the rotation, but not enough to pretend he’s a difference-maker against an elite team like the Atlanta Braves.

Still, it seems clear that Canning is taking an approach that is leading to more strikeouts and at least a bit more consistency over the past two months. That gives us the opportunity to take advantage of this change before the books fully adjust to it.

Despite his recent numbers and his overall career averages, Canning’s strikeout prop tonight is set at just 5.5 strikeouts. That’s at least one strikeout too low, especially since we can get a solid plus-money number on him to get Over that total.

My best bet: Griffin Canning Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

Angels vs Braves same-game parlay

Griffin Canning Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

Braves ML (-210)

Over 9.5 (-120)

+741 at FanDuel

For our same-game parlay, I’m going to try to take advantage of a couple of outcomes that I believe are likely tonight, but aren’t correlated, meaning we’ll get maximum value by stacking them together.

As I explained above, I expect Canning to get his strikeouts. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be effective overall, and in fact, I’m confident the Braves will find ways to score against him. 

That means that I’m taking the Braves on the moneyline. I’m also taking the Over at 9.5 runs, as both of these teams can hit, and the Angels should be able to get their share of offense in against Charlie Morton.

Put that all together, and we have a potentially high-paying SGP that feels very achievable tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Angels vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Braves opened tonight’s game as a significant -218 favorite. While there’s no consensus moneyline as of noon on Monday, you’ll typically find Atlanta at about -220, with some sites offering lines as generous as -200. The best line I found on the Angels was +185.

As perhaps the best team in the majors this year, it’s not surprising to learn that the Braves have made bettors a profit of more than 11 units on the moneyline in 2023. Los Angeles hasn’t been quite that profitable, losing three units on the season.

Despite the weak payout, I’m still backing the Braves tonight. While the Angels are playing better, and they’ve added some offensive firepower with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, their success has mostly come against weaker teams.

Not only does Los Angeles struggle against the cream of the crop, but teams are also working hard to pitch around Ohtani, the only truly dangerous bat in the lineup in the absence of Mike Trout. The Braves are the moneyline play.

The Over/Under opened at 10 runs for tonight’s game. A few books have moved to 9.5, but the total remains at a flat 10 across most sites. You can get even money (+100) on the Over at 10 runs, or take the Under at -115 on that number.

The Angels have played perfectly neutral to the total this year, hitting the Over and the Under 50 times each so far. The Over does have a 55-46 record in Atlanta games this season.

Neither Canning nor Morton is the type of pitcher that makes me think an opposing lineup is likely to be shut down, and these are two high-scoring teams. The Braves are averaging an impressive 5.66 runs per game, while the Angels put up 4.99 per game, both of which rank in the Top 5 in the majors this year.

That’s enough for me to have a slight lean towards the Over tonight, though I’d prefer to get in at 9.5 runs if possible.

Trend to know

Griffin Canning has struck out at least seven batters in five of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Braves

Angels vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.46 ERA): After a promising start to his career, Canning missed the entirety of the 2022 season with a stress fracture in his back, an injury that stopped him from pitching for about 20 months in total. His return in 2023 has been solid, as Canning has continued to put up similar numbers as he did during his first three seasons for Los Angeles. Last time out, Canning gave up two runs on seven hits while striking out eight batters against the Tigers on July 25.

Charlie Morton (10-8, 3.57 ERA): The veteran Morton continues to be an effective member of championship teams even at age 39. While his control continues to be an issue, Morton gets strikeouts and keeps the ball in the park, though his WHIP has risen to a concerning 1.421 this year. Morton last threw on July 27, giving up four runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. 

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