An upcoming Netflix documentary is putting prediction markets under the microscope following the world’s biggest sporting event.
Key Takeaways
- Netflix’s latest Instadocs documentary will examine the rapid growth and broader impact of prediction markets.
- Kalshi asked Netflix to remove the trailer, objecting to a scene in Nevada despite court-ordered restrictions on its sports markets.
- Prediction markets saw massive World Cup activity, with Kalshi reporting nearly $1.9 billion in trades on the final alone.
Netflix unveiled the latest project in its Instadocs series Thursday, covering the rapidly expanding world of prediction markets through the lens of this week’s World Cup final.
“Last weekend, more than $5.6 billion was wagered on the World Cup final through Polymarket and Kalshi, representing just a sliver of the overall action on prediction markets - a legal but controversial way to gamble on the outcome of almost anything,” the Netflix press release outlines. “On July 26, the latest installment of Instadocs examines the phenomenon, exploring how tens of millions of people are diving into these markets - placing bets on anything from the World Cup and Taylor Swift’s wedding to elections, weather, and armed conflict - with all sorts of consequences.”
Titled "Instadocs: The Prediction Games," the documentary is already making prediction market news given the controversial and brash nature of the title’s trailer and subject matter.
Whether it’s the World Cup or Taylor Swift’s wedding, tens of millions are betting on the outcomes of almost anything using prediction markets.
— Netflix (@netflix) July 23, 2026
Go inside the world of this legal but controversial form of gambling in INSTADOCS: THE PREDICTION GAMES. Premiering July 26. pic.twitter.com/W7gsBl2Zd1
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Trailer draws Kalshi’s ire
It appears prediction market operators themselves may not be thrilled with the project so far, as Kalshi asked Netflix to take down the trailer Thursday because of its “misleading” nature, according to CNN reporter Marshall Cohen.
The trailer seems to depict a World Cup watch party with a group of traders in Nevada despite court-ordered bans on prediction markets offering sports contracts to Nevada-based users.
“Instadocs: The Prediction Games drops viewers into the red-hot center of betting fever, where millions are wagering they can predict the future and win big - fast,” Netflix said in its press release. “The installment features interviews with those who own the game, including Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, as well as regulator Michael Selig, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”
Prediction markets seize World Cup opportunity
Despite the controversies surrounding prediction markets, their success during the World Cup suggests the industry has no plans to slow down anytime soon.
Kalshi said users traded nearly $1.9 billion on the World Cup final, while the company added upward of 3 million new users and outpaced several major sports betting operators, including DraftKings and FanDuel.
Analyst firm H2 Gambling Capital estimated that prediction market sites accounted for 27% of all U.S. sports betting activity throughout the event.
