Kalshi prediction market users risked nearly $1.9 billion on the FIFA World Cup final, which was contested between Spain and Argentina.
The World Cup generated an extraordinary amount of interest in prediction markets, which produced an estimated 27% of the total betting volume reported at legal sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- Spain had a 59% chance of beating Argentina in the World Cup Final.
- Argentina won the 2022 World Cup Final but was outclassed by Spain.
- Spain is already favored to win the 2028 Euros and the 2030 World Cup.
Kalshi’s prediction markets include a real-time ticker that tracks the total trading volume in all of its markets. The World Cup Final market, which settled when the final whistle sounded after 120 minutes of action plus stoppage time, shows that users traded $1,893,220,726 since it opened in May 2025.
Spain — the reigning European champion — was given a 59% chance of winning the match during the build-up to the final.
Argentina — the reigning World Cup and Copa America champion — had a 41% chance, according to Kalshi users.
BREAKING: Someone put $10.5M last month on Spain to not WIN the World Cup
— Kalshi FC (@KalshiFC) July 19, 2026
$12M potential payout pic.twitter.com/kKxTlrZ9F7
Prediction platforms offered a plethora of trading markets for the match, including the final outcome, goals scored, player performances, method of victory, mentions, halftime performances, advertisements, viewership, and more.
Marquee prediction markets that were graded as winners were as follows:
- Match winner: Spain
- Regulation result: Tie
- Method of finish: Either team to win in extra time
- Over/under 2.5 goals: Under
- Anytime goalscorer: Ferran Torres
- Anytime assist: Nico Williams
- Coldplay, Justin Bieber and BTS to perform at halftime
- Announcers to say “Red card”: Yes
Spain settles World Cup prediction markets
Sunday’s contest was totally unlike the previous day’s thrilling third-place match during which 10 total goals were scored in England’s 6-4 win over France. The Final dragged into extra-time despite lopsided metrics favoring the Spaniards.
The game opened up when Argentina’s Enzo Fernández was given a red card following his second yellow for a rash challenge three minutes into stoppage time. The first half of extra-time came and went without consequence, but Spain’s Ferran Torres needed less than one minute to net the tournament-winning goal in the second half.
Spain earned the goal, given it finished the match with 20 shots and 2.29 expected goals to Argentina’s 0.22.
The defending champs only took two shots, both of which came deep into extra-time, in the entire match. Neither was on target.
Lionel Messi’s failure to find the back of the net confirmed France’s Kylian Mbappé as the Golden Boot winner. Now the World Cup’s all-time leading goalscorer, Mbappé scored 10 times — the third-most in a single tournament and the most since 1970 — and had four assists in eight matches. Messi finished second with eight goals and four assists.
More than $43 million was traded in Kalshi’s Golden Boot prediction market. Mbappé (15%) was the favorite when the World Cup began on June 11.
It’s never too early…
As often happens once a championship event concludes, Kalshi published lookahead probabilities for the 2030 World Cup.
Based on user sentiment, Spain has a leading 18% chance of winning the next tournament, which will mark the 100-year anniversary of the first World Cup. France (15%) is second and the only team that is also in double digits, followed by Argentina (9%), Brazil (8%), and England (8%).
Spain is also a 31% favorite to win the 2028 UEFA European Championship. Co-host England (28%), France (26%), and Germany (15%) are the closest contenders.
