The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are headed to a final Game 7 matchup to determine which team will face the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals.
Oddsmakers believe that team will be the Thunder. NBA bettors are split.
The Thunder are -3.5 home favorites for Game 7 and are still favored to win the NBA Finals, despite being one game away from elimination.
Key Takeaways
- The Thunder were favored by 4.5 or more points in three prior games as favorites.
- BetMGM users are showing more support for the Thunder on the spread and more for the Spurs on the moneyline.
- The Knicks, the only team to qualify for the Finals, still trail the Thunder in Finals odds.
Everyone knows the two best words in sports: Game Seven.
The Thunder and Spurs’ instant-classic series will see them head to Oklahoma City for one final time. BetMGM lists the Thunder as 3.5-point favorites and -165 (62.3% implied chance) on the moneyline, while the Spurs are +135 (42.6% chance).
Home teams were favored in every game in this series, although the Thunder’s 3.5-point advantage is the smallest of their four home games in the series.
- Game 1: Thunder -6.5
- Game 2: Thunder -6.5
- Game 5: Thunder -4.5
- Game 7: Thunder -3.5
BetMGM users can’t seem to agree on which team they’re backing in Saturday’s series finale. Currently, 59% of bets and 70% of the handle in the spread market are on Thunder -3.5, but 70% of tickets and 65% of the money in the moneyline market are on the Spurs, according to insights shared with Covers.
Neither the spread nor moneyline values have shifted since odds were first published after Game 6. The projected points total has increased one point from 211.5 to 212.5, with 69% of wagers and 72% of the pot favoring the over.
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Who are bettors supporting in Spurs-Thunder?
While the Thunder are favored to win the Western Conference championship-decider, the Spurs can claim they have been the superior team in the series. They are +18 in aggregate score (678-660) and recorded wins of 27 and 21 points, while the Thunder’s largest win came by 15 points.
Betting trends have been nearly identical thus far. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread and on the moneyline at home and as favorites, and 1-2 on the road and as underdogs.
Series odds fluctuated dramatically based on the outcome of each game. The Spurs’ statement double-overtime victory on the road in Game 1 caused their price to shorten from +225 at opening to -105 heading into Game 2, although they have only lengthened since then. Their current +135 series value is as close as they’ve been.
The Thunder, -275 opening favorites, were only -115 after Game 1. They ballooned to -450 before Games 4 and 6 and sit at -160 entering the final matchup.
Although a dominant 74% of series bets are for the Spurs to win, an even larger 76% of the money is on the Thunder to advance.
The five most bet player props at BetMGM throughout the series, based on tickets, are:
- Luguentz Dort under 5.5 points
- Julian Champagnie under 5.5 rebounds
- De’Aaron Fox under 4.5 rebounds
- Jared McCain under 2.5 three-pointers
- Chet Holmgren under 14.5 points
NBA Finals odds update
| Team | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +125 | +125 | +125 |
| New York Knicks | +200 | +200 | +210 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +240 | +245 | +230 |
BetMGM’s NBA Finals odds have the Thunder ahead at +125 (44.4% chance). The Knicks — the only team that has reached the championship round — are second at +200 (33.3% chance). The Spurs round out the bottom at +240 (29.4% chance).
BetMGM has not published look-ahead lines for potential series matchups between the Knicks and Thunder and the Knicks and Spurs. DraftKings, however, had the Thunder (-265) and Spurs (-225) both favored in hypothetical Finals matchups.
