When it comes to the Kentucky Derby odds, win betting is most often the focus. It's the simplest bet to understand, and besides, no one remembers who finishes second, right?
Wrong.
Among my proudest moments as a handicapper are having 35-1 bomb Golden Soul underneath the winning favorite Orb in the 2013 Kentucky Derby exacta, and 37-1 shot Commanding Curve under California Chrome just one year later. Those horses helped trigger monster exacta payoffs of $981.60 and $340.00, respectively, for $2.
The trifectas and superfectas both paid in the thousands of dollars those years. While I can't guarantee we'll get a big Kentucky Derby long shot to run into the money in 2025, I can give you my best free betting picks for the Kentucky Derby trifecta, superfecta, and exacta.
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Kentucky Derby Exacta pick
The bettor must predict the Top 2 finishers of a race, in the correct order, to hit the exacta. The minimum wager is typically $1, but the $1 straight exacta is not allowed at Churchill Downs. Only $1 part-wheels (e.g. 1/2,3) or boxes (where the bettor’s Kentucky Derby horses can finish first and second in any order, albeit at an increased cost) are permitted.
Probable post-time favorite No. 8 Journalism (+300 at FanDuel Racing) can't complain about his Kentucky Derby post position, which should help him to work out the ideal stalking trip he's used to score in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby this year.
Though I respect his immense talent, he'll be dealing with far more horses than he's been accustomed to, and that variable has me wanting just a bit more coverage on the top of my exotic plays.
No. 7 Luxor Cafe (+1500 at FanDuel Racing) is riding a four-race win streak into the Derby. He took both the Hyacinth Stakes and the Fukuryu Stakes, the latter of which guaranteed his spot in the field, to prep for the Run for the Roses.
Unlike Journalism, Luxor Cafe has taken on plenty of comers in his six-race career, facing anywhere from nine to 15 rivals in each start to date.
The other two horses I'll be using in exactas are No. 16 Coal Battle (+3000 at FanDuel Racing) and No. 19 Chunk of Gold (+3000 at FanDuel Racing).
Coal Battle does not boast dazzling speed figures, but he's got a nose for the wire. He's won more races (five) than any horse in the Derby field and took the Grade II Rebel Stakes two starts ago.
Chunk of Gold has yet to win on conventional dirt, but he has run second in both the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. He only needs to improve slightly to have a realistic shot at the win here, and the extra 1/16th-mile he gets here should work to his advantage.
$3 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Second place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
$1 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
- Second place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
Total = $30
Kentucky Derby Trifecta pick
The trifecta tasks the bettor with selecting the first three finishers of a race in the correct order. The payoff can be substantially higher than the exacta, but so too are the potential ticket costs and risk factors.
One benefit horseplayers have when it comes to the trifecta compared to the exacta or superfecta for the Kentucky Derby is the 50 cent minimum wager amount. That allows the chance to include more combinations while keeping costs at a reasonable level.
I'll lean most heavily on the Top 4 horses in my Kentucky Derby predictions, but I want a bit more coverage in the lowest rung of this wager. No. 9 Burnham Square, No. 17 Sandman, No. 18 Sovereignty, and No. 21 Baeza will all make the cut for third.
Burnham Square, Sandman, and Sovereignty all boast wins in key preps. Baeza is lightly-raced and eligible to improve off a runner-up showing in his final prep.
$4 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Second place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
- Third place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
$1 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Second place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Third place: No. 9 Burnham Square, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 17 Sandman, No. 18 Sovereignty, No. 19 Chunk of Gold, No. 21 Baeza
Total = $26
Kentucky Derby betting resources
- Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show predictions
- Kentucky Derby AI predictions
- Kentucky Derby horses
- Kentucky Derby odds
- How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
- Best Kentucky Derby betting sites
- Kentucky Oaks predictions
- Early Kentucky Oaks predictions
Kentucky Derby Superfecta pick
The superfecta is one of the highest-paying wagers in horse racing, but it's also among the trickiest to hit as the bettor must select the Top 4 finishers of a race in exact order. The superfecta minimum for the Derby is $1, and that makes constructing an affordable ticket very difficult. However, it also increases the chances for a huge payday.
It's best to keep things simple in the superfecta pool, as even a five-horse superfecta box at the $1 minimum costs a prohibitive $120. I'll once again back Luxor Cafe and Journalism to complete the Top 2 spots, try to get either Coal Battle or Chunk of Gold to run third, and spread again in the fourth and final rung.
$1 Superfecta pick:
- To win: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Second place: No. 7 Luxor Cafe, No. 8 Journalism
- Third place: No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold
- Fourth place: No. 9 Burnham Square, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 17 Sandman, No. 18 Sovereignty, No. 19 Chunk of Gold, No. 21 Baeza
Total = $20
Kentucky Derby betting FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, “and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
With a Superfecta bet you are selecting the top four finishers in the race in order.
