The Kentucky Derby odds typically contain the chance at a gigantic payoff every year, and 2026 is no different.
My Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta, and superfecta picks are leaving +400 morning-line favorite Renegade out of the equation entirely after he drew the rail, which has been one of the worst Kentucky Derby post positions over the last 40 years.
Find out why I believe The Puma is among the keys to unlocking massive exotic mutuels on Saturday, May 2.
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Kentucky Derby exacta pick
In order to hit the Kentucky Derby exacta, you must correctly predict the Top 2 finishers in the race. The minimum wager is $1, but bear in mind that the $1 straight exacta is not allowed at Churchill Downs. Only $1 part-wheels (e.g. 1/2,3) or boxes (where the bettor’s Kentucky Derby horses can finish first and second in any order, albeit at an increased cost) are permitted.
Commandment and Danon Bourbon top my Kentucky Derby predictions, but The Puma and Chief Wallabee are not all that far behind. Three of those four (Danon Bourbon being the exception) competed in the Florida Derby, with Commandment only beating The Puma by a nose.
Chief Wallabee was only a half-length from the win, and was also second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth to Commandment.
I'll box all four of my top choices in an exacta, which costs $24 for $2 since I'm playing 12 different combinations. I'll also double up with combinations involving Commandment on top since he's the shortest win price, and throw in Emerging Market and Further Ado underneath.
Emerging Market could have more to offer in just his third lifetime start, while Further Ado drew poorly but has hinted at serious talent, at least at Keeneland.
$2 exacta box:
- To win: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Second place: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
$2 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 6 Commandment
- Second place: No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, No. 15 Emerging Market, No. 18 Further Ado
Total = $34
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Kentucky Derby trifecta pick
You must select the first three finishers of the Kentucky Derby in order to hit the trifecta. The payoff can be substantially higher than the exacta, but so too are the potential ticket costs and risk factors.
One benefit horseplayers have when it comes to the trifecta compared to the exacta or superfecta for the Kentucky Derby is the 50 cent minimum wager amount. That allows the chance to include more combinations while keeping costs at a reasonable level.
It's only logical to take my four-horse exacta box and apply it to the trifecta. Boxing four horses in a trifecta costs $24 for every $1 staked.
I'll continue to follow my exacta logic to an extent, singling Commandment on top in an additional trifecta play and using Emerging Market and Further Ado in the lowest rung.
$1 trifecta box:
- To win: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Second place: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Third place: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
$1 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 6 Commandment
- Second place: No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Third place: No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, No. 15 Emerging Market, No. 18 Further Ado
Total = $36
Kentucky Derby superfecta pick
The superfecta is one of the highest-paying wagers in horse racing, but it's also among the trickiest to hit, as you must select the Top 4 finishers of a race in exact order. The superfecta minimum for the Derby is $1, and that makes constructing an affordable ticket a tall order. However, it also increases the chances for a huge payday.
Once again, to keep ticket costs reasonable, this play starts with Commandment — the top horse from the top Derby prep — winning. Some combination of Danon Bourbon, The Puma, and Chief Wallabee will make up the next two spots.
For the fourth leg, we'll spread a little more and add in some wild cards, along with Emerging Market and Further Ado once again.
$1 superfecta pick:
- To win: No. 6 Commandment
- Second place: No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Third place: No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee
- Fourth place: No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 8 So Happy, No. 9 The Puma, No. 10 Wonder Dean, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, No. 14 Potente, No. 15 Emerging Market, No. 16 Pavlovian, No. 18 Further Ado
Total = $42
How to bet on the Kentucky Derby - FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, “and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
