It looks like a wide-open field for the 152nd Kentucky Derby today, especially with morning-line favorite Renegade drawing the rail.
My Kentucky Derby picks and Win, Place Show predictions for Saturday, May 2 are tossing Renegade and calling for a sizable Kentucky Derby odds upset in Danon Bourbon.
See who else I think will hit the board ahead of post time at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC.
| Horse | Wager |  |
|---|---|---|
| No. 7 Danon Bourbon | $10 win | +2000 |
| No. 6 Commandment | $10 place | +600 |
| No. 12 Chief Wallabee | $10 show | +800 |
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Kentucky Derby picks: Win, Place, and Show predictions
Best bet: No. 7 Danon Bourbon to win
Win prediction: Danon Bourbon (+2000 to win at FanDuel)
I've been chomping at the bit to bet on No. 7 Danon Bourbon since his convincing win in the Fukuryu Stakes. Danon Bourbon posted the fastest winning time in that key Kentucky Derby prep in over 20 years.
Japan has thrown some quality three-year-olds into the Derby in recent years, including narrow third-place finisher and Breeders' Cup Classic champion Forever Young. Danon Bourbon gives the Land of the Rising Sun another solid chance to score its elusive first Kentucky Derby victory.
It's hard to knock this speedy son of Maxfield, who is a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime.
Place prediction: Commandment (+600 to win at FanDuel)
Commandment has won more races in a row heading into the Kentucky Derby (four) than some of his rivals have raced at all. He was last seen acing the Florida Derby, which came on the heels of a Fountain of Youth Stakes score.
He's shown plenty of grit in those two efforts, staving off a stubborn Chief Wallabee (more on him later) and The Puma.
Top-notch connections are in his corner in trainer Brad Cox and jockey Luis Saez.
Show prediction: Chief Wallabee (+800 to win at FanDuel)
Chief Wallabee has just one win from three starts, but he wasn't beaten by much in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Bear in mind that Sovereignty, last year's Derby winner, also lost the Florida Derby in his final prep.
Chief Wallabee is also trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, just like Sovereignty was last year. Blinkers go on this son of Constitution, and there isn't a ton of speed signed on for this year's Derby, so look for him to be near the front for a good, long time.
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Kentucky Derby odds
- Race: Churchill Race 12
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 | +400 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | +600 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 | +1000 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | +800 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 | +600 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 21 | Great White | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 22 | Ocelli | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 23 | Robusta | 50-1 | +5000 |
Odds at FanDuel Racing, one of our best Kentucky Derby betting sites.
