A field of 13 looking to make their stamp on the Kentucky Derby odds will crowd the starting gate for Saturday's Grade II, $1.25 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this Saturday.
The final local stepping stone to next month's Arkansas Derby at the Hot Springs, AR oval is led by Timberlake, the 6-5 morning-line favorite trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Cristian Torres.
Is the heavy chalk unbeatable? I don't think so, and my free betting picks will target a pair of 15-1 shots with legitimate hopes of winning the Rebel Stakes on Saturday, February 24.
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Rebel Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Oaklawn Race 11
- Post time: 6:23 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carbone | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,000 |
| 2 | Northern Flame | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +1,000 |
| 3 | Common Defense | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 4 | Tejon Pass | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 5 | Magic Grant | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +6,600 |
| 6 | Dimatic | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,200 |
| 7 | Timberlake | 6-5 | +110 | +110 | +137 |
| 8 | Next Level | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 9 | Lagynos | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,000 |
| 10 | Mena | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +2,500 |
| 11 | Just Steel | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +400 |
| 12 | Woodcourt | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| 13 | Time for Truth | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +900 |
Odds as of February 23, 2024.
No. 1 Carbone (15-1) misfired in the Southwest Stakes earlier in the month over this course, but I believe this son of Mitole deserves a second chance on the Kentucky Derby trail. Carbone was part of a Southwest pace that fell apart completely, and the muddy track may not have been to his liking.
There are legitimate pace concerns in the Rebel with No. 2 Northern Flame, No. 4 Tejon Pass, No. 8 Next Level, No. 9 Lagynos, and No. 13 Time for Truth all capable of showing speed, but I believe there's a reason Carbone was favored to win the Southwest. The speed figures he earned over his first two starts on fast dirt would make him a serious threat to take the Rebel.
No. 7 Timberlake (6-5 morning-line favorite) has not raced since settling for fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, replicating the speed figure he put up to win the Grade I Champagne Stakes at Belmont, albeit in the slop. The 2023 Juvenile has been a mixed bag in terms of next-out success stories, with Muth (second) representing the only next-out winner of the group. Notably, race winner Fierceness was a dull third in the Holy Bull in his sophomore debut.
However, Timberlake is working exceptionally well ahead of his 2024 unveiling, and the potential for a pace meltdown only helps his chances.
No. 13 Time for Truth (15-1) would rate a higher chance with a better post draw and a softer pace scenario, but this son of Omaha Beach out of a Lookin at Lucky mare should not be dismissed trying a route for the first time.
He ran one of the fastest figures in the field in his debut victory on fast dirt, then took a small step back in the mud in his lone try vs. winners. Trainer Ron Moquett has a decent 14% strike rate with horses stretching out, and Rafael Bejarano rides once more. Bejarano is one of the few jockeys sticking with his charge from race-to-race as this field was largely subject to the horse racing version of "musical chairs" due to out-of-town commitments.
No. 11 Just Steel (7-2) rounds out my top selections after settling for second behind a horse in Mystik Dan that freaked in the mud in the Southwest. Just Steel ran his race, which would put him in the hunt in the Rebel, but it just wasn't good enough last time out.
My main concern with this D. Wayne Lukas trainee is that he's the most experienced runner of the bunch (nine starts, tied with No. 12 Woodcourt), and therefore his ceiling may be limited while others may have yet to reach their full potential.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 1/7/11/13, $3 exacta box 1/7 ($30)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fireceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Not intended for use in MA.
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