The Belmont Stakes is once again a highly-anticipated race. Preakness Stakes winner Journalism will probably go off as the odds-on favorite for “The Test of the Champion,” and Sovereignty will probably be the second choice. After that, the Belmont Stakes odds will be wide open.
Although Journalism probably dominates this field, if he doesn't go wide, there's a Belmont Stakes long shot pick who I think can make some noise in this 1 1/4-mile affair.
Read my free betting picks below to find out why Hill Road could outrun his odds.
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Belmont Stakes long shot prediction: Hill Road (+1000 at FanDuel Racing)
Trust me, I'm not a huge Chad Brown guy, but getting 10-1 odds on Hill Road with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard seems like a steal.
For those who are unfamiliar, Chad Brown is one of the top trainers in the NYRA circuit. He’s won eight Belmont spring/summer trainer titles, and four consecutive Saratoga meets. A good chunk of his 1,000+ career NYRA wins have come with Ortiz Jr. on board for the ride.
It’s always hard to tell if Ortiz Jr. will be aggressive or stay put in the early stages of the race, especially with this horse. Nevertheless, Hill Road drew post one, so there's a better-than-good chance Ortiz can save ground and attack late.
His Peter Pan Stakes victory, which has been a key race for the Belmont in the past, showcased that he has the stamina to come on late. He closed from seventh to win by roughly three-quarters of a length in the Peter Pan.
Hill Road’s speed figures have also been on the rise. His Beyer Speed Figures improved from 85 (Tampa Bay Derby) to 94 (Peter Pan). He finished in the money on four of his five career starts, so he was always there knocking on the door.
If you want to turn this into a genetics argument, according to what I learned, his pedigree contains 68% stamina-oriented influences, such as Lemon Drop Kid and Kingmambo, versus 32% speed.
Could this horse pose a serious threat if the top choices run their best races? Probably not. But if neither fires, Ortiz will give him and the others a serious run for their money.
If I had to make just one bet on the Belmont Stakes, Hill Road would be it.
Belmont Stakes odds
Here are the odds for all eight Belmont Stakes horses.
| Post | Horse | * |
** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Journalism | +160 | 8-5 | +160 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | +200 | 2-1 | +200 |
| 6 | Baeza | +400 | 4-1 | +400 |
| 3 | Rodriguez | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 1 | Hill Road | +1000 | 10-1 | +1000 |
| 5 | Crudo | +1500 | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 4 | Uncaged | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 8 | Heart of Honor | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 odds are not available in the United States
