Golf's third major of the year tees off tomorrow, with the U.S. Open happening at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
To help you fill out your card for this week, our golf experts are sharing their favorite U.S. Open picks, including who they think will win, a long-shot pick with value, and who will be atop the leaderboard following Thursday's first round.
🧠 U.S. Open expert picks
| Expert | Winner | Long Shot | FRL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esten McLaren | Tommy Fleetwood +2000 |
Patrick Reed +4000 |
Chris Gotterup +4500 |
| Neil Parker | Scottie Scheffler +550 |
Justin Thomas +4500 |
Sam Burns +4000 |
| Chris Gregory | Scottie Scheffler +550 |
Justin Rose +4500 |
Matt Fitzpatrick +4500 |
| James Bisson | Matt Fitzpatrick +2000 |
J.J. Spaun +5000 |
Brooks Koepka +3300 |
💰 U.S. Open predictions: Who will win
Esten McLaren (Content Manager): Tommy Fleetwood
Putting has long held Tommy Fleetwood back from success on the PGA Tour and in major championships. Well, with that being one of the key metrics for success this week, Fleetwood enters in peak form with the flat stick. The Englishman has averaged 0.79 strokes gained: putting across his last eight rounds entering the 2026 U.S. Open.
His elite ball striking has stayed in form, and he's also been one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball over that span. I'm a strong believer in the reigning FedEx champion despite his missed cut in the PGA Championship and lackluster showing at Augusta National. He finished in the top 5 of the last two Signature Events, and I trust him more than most ahead of a battle with Shinnecock Hills.
Odds: +2000 at BetMGM
Neil Parker (Golf Betting Analyst): Scottie Scheffler
While this season probably hasn't gone exactly to plan for Scottie Scheffler, there isn’t a player on the planet who can match his statistical profile. He paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, adjusted scoring average, Par-4 scoring, and bogey avoidance in 2026, after all.
Additionally, I wholeheartedly believe he’s circled this event to peak at this season to complete the career Grand Slam.
Odds: +550 at BetMGM
Chris Gregory (Publishing Editor): Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler's track record at the toughest venues speaks for itself, and the fact he hasn't gotten a win over the line since January shouldn't scare you away. The World No. 1 still leads the PGA Tour in scoring average and total strokes gained while ranking third in strokes gained around-the-green. The cream will rise to the top at Shinnecock.
Odds: +550 at BetMGM
James Bisson (Head of Content, Betting): Matt Fitzpatrick
I don't feel like I'm getting Matt Fitzpatrick at much of a deal, but that's fine. I believe he's still one of the strongest value plays in the field: He fared well in the last U.S. Open held at Shinnecock (placing T12), ranks third in total strokes gained on the season, and excels where you need to at this venue, ranked fourth in approach and sixth around the green. Finally, he's deadly accurate off the tee, which will serve him especially well at this brutal test of golf.
Odds: +2000 at BetMGM
💤 U.S. Open predictions: Who is a sleeper at Shinnecock?
McLaren: Patrick Reed
Though Patrick Reed hasn't been playing as often lately, he finished T12 at the Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship. He relied heavily on an exceptional short game and ball-striking in those tournaments. His 0.81 strokes gained: around-the-green ranks fourth in this field across everyone's last 16 rounds.
He also finished fourth in the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock. He gained 1.53 strokes per round on approach for the tournament, according to DataGolf. I would bet on Reed to win the U.S. Open all the way down to +2500, as that price is closer to the caliber of player he's been this year. I consider him a Top-10 golfer in this field, and his major results this season back that up. Yet, he's 16th on the odds board at BetMGM.
Odds: +4000 at BetMGM
Parker: Justin Thomas
Don’t sleep on Justin Thomas. He’s carded four consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board, and the two-time major champion also finished T25 at the 2018 U.S. Open here while gaining true strokes across the board.
Odds: +4500 at BetMGM
Gregory: Justin Rose
Justin Rose continues to get up for the majors at 45 years old and has gone T3 (Masters) and T10 (PGA Championship) to kick off 2026. Missing the cut in Canada last week is a concern, but Shinnecock's higher scoring should favor the poised yet hungry veteran who finished T10 here in 2018.
Odds: +4500 at BetMGM
Bisson: J.J. Spaun
J.J. Spaun is the all-or-nothing monster I love taking as a U.S. Open long shot. In his last 10 tournaments, he has seven Top-25 finishes (including a win at the Texas Open) and three missed cuts. All or nothing, baby! There's a strong rationale, as well: Spaun is accurate off the tee, has been one of the best iron players in the world in 2026, and is excellent around the green. Those skills should give him a shot this weekend.
Odds: +5000 at BetMGM
⏰ U.S. Open predictions: First-round leader bets
McLaren: Chris Gotterup
Chris Gotterup leads the PGA Tour with an early Round 1 scoring average of 67.60 through five such tee times this season. That tee time helped him fire an opening-round 63 en route to winning the Phoenix Open.
Gotterup also shot 63 in the Sony Open before going on to win the event. He's been a strong starter this season, ranking 13th overall in Round 1 scoring average. I'm coupling that with his strong ball striking and putting over his last eight rounds to make this a full-unit stake down to +4500 odds.
Odds: +4500 at BetMGM
Parker: Sam Burns
Consecutive Top 10s in the U.S. Open, in addition to spikes in approach and around-the-green play, have Sam Burns on my radar this week. His elite work on the greens can lead to birdies in bunches, and he has an early tee time Thursday morning when playing conditions should be at their best in Round 1.
Odds: +4000 at BetMGM
Gregory: Matt Fitzpatrick
The 2022 U.S. Open champion is in top form this season, and I like his momentum to continue after a runner-up finish in Canada in which he shot a Sunday-best 64. He's just 39th in Round 1 scoring on the season, but shot an opening-round 65 at the RBC Heritage (T3 after R1) and was T5 after his opening round at the Valspar.
Odds: +4500 at BetMGM
Bisson: Brooks Koepka
Sportsbooks love narratives. How else can you explain Brooks Koepka having the 11th-shortest FRL odds despite posting just one Top-10 result in nine events since returning to the PGA Tour? Having won the U.S. Open the last time it was played at Shinnecock helps, as does his sizzling 66.0 scoring average over his last five opening rounds. Add in that coveted early Thursday tee time, and I'm all the way in.
Odds: +3300 at BetMGM
⚙️ More U.S. Open betting resources
- U.S. Open predictions
- U.S. Open long shot predictions
- U.S. Open first-round leader predictions
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open cheat sheet
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open AI picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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