The opening round of the third major championship is right around the corner, and my U.S. Open power rankings are the perfect starting point for pinpointing your U.S. Open picks and pool selections.
I’ve got you covered from the betting favorites in the U.S. Open odds through the longshots and sleepers down the board.
Power Rankings Methodology
My power rankings are based on a thorough analysis of current form and statistical performance metrics, with a particular emphasis on scoring statistics and an all-around profile in true strokes gained metrics fit to tackle the challenge awaiting at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
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Top targets: 🎯 |
Higher on: 📈 |
Leans: ✅ |
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Course fits: ⛳ |
Lower on: 📉 |
Fades: 🛑 |
1. Scottie Scheffler (+573) 🎯: There is no better stylistic or statistical fit for the demands of Shinnecock, and Scheffler is also eyeing the career Grand Slam. I believe he’s built his entire 2026 calendar around peaking to win this event, and no one should be surprised if the World No. 1 also wins convincingly.
2. Xander Schauffele (+1892) 🎯: Few have taken their game to the next level in major championships like Schauffele in recent years. In addition to his two major wins, he’s also carded another eight Top 10s since the beginning of the 2024 season.
3. Jon Rahm (+1666) ✅: Coming off a tidy tee-to-green showing at the LIV Golf Andalucia event to finish solo-second and a T2 at the PGA Championship, Rahm’s ball-striking and short-game acumen will play at Shinnecock. Plus, the Spaniard is also renowned for his ability to succeed on links-style courses.
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2241) 📈: With a trio of wins and a pair of solo-seconds across his past nine events while also ranking third in adjusted scoring average of the 2026 season, Fitzpatrick is dialed throughout the bag.
5. Justin Thomas (+6566) 📈: Don’t sleep on Thomas. He’s carded four consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board, and the two-time major champion also finished T25 at the 2018 U.S. Open here while gaining true strokes across the board.
6. Rory McIlroy (+1240) 📉: I’m not anticipating McIlroy’s edge off the tee to be as large a separator as it is at most tracks, and he also missed the cut here in the 2018 U.S. Open. Obviously, he could win and will likely contend, I’m just not as bullish.
7. Tommy Fleetwood (+2363) 📉: While the historic Sunday 63 at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock has garnered a lot of attention, Fleetwood only has a single Top 20 in major championships since the beginning of the 2025 season, and he’s also been more of a contender than a winner since peaking to end last season.
8. Cameron Young (+2654) ⛳: In theory, Shinnecock should be a perfect setup for Young’s game. I just think he’s already peaked in 2026, considering he heads to this event on a T36-T46 run.
9. Patrick Reed (+5394) 🎯: With a T12-T10 start to the 2026 majors and a T4 finish here at the 2018 U.S. Open, Reed’s tee-to-green play and short-game skills set him up to contend and card another strong finish this week.
10. Ludvig Aberg (+2654) 🛑: With true strokes lost putting in consecutive majors and true strokes lost around-the-green in consecutive signature events, I’m not confident Aberg’s elite tee-to-green play can overcome his short-game follies this week.
11. Chris Gotterup (+5713) ✅: This can be classified as a hometown park for Gotterup, and he’s quickly proving to be a big-game player with a T23-3rd-T24-T10 run across the past four major championships. Add his three wins within the past calendar year to gaining true strokes across the board dating back to the Scottish Open win, and there’s a lot to like about the Jersey Boy.
12. Patrick Cantlay (+5713) 📈: When par is a good score, Cantlay is better set up for success. He’s also trending in the right direction with true strokes gained across the board across his past six events (five Top 20s), including ranking eighth in this field in tee-to-green play, sixth on approach, and sixth around the green.
13. Tyrrell Hatton (+5713) ✅: Coming off a win at the LIV Golf Andalucia to start the month, Hatton has also gained true strokes on approach in four consecutive majors, including during his T4 at the 2025 U.S. Open. His proven all-around game suits the requirements of links-style tracks, too.
14. Sam Burns (+3965) 📈: Consecutive Top 10s at the U.S. Open, in addition to spikes in approach and around-the-green play, have Burns on my radar this week. His elite work on the greens can cure a lot of ills, too.
15. Russell Henley (+3791) ⛳: In addition to finishing T25 here at the 2018 U.S. Open, Henley rebounded from missing the cut at the PGA Championship to win the Charles Schwab. He’s also on a T10-T7-T14 run the past three years in the U.S. Open, and has the well-rounded game to contend in another major championship this week.
16. Maverick McNealy (+8374) ✅: Steady and boring complement good golf, and McNealy has three straight Top 25s in majors and another six across his latest 2026 events while gaining true strokes tee-to-green, around-the-green, and on the green.
17. Wyndham Clark (+5713) ✅: Here’s your risk/reward target on the list. Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open, and he’s been in sneaky good form with another win at the Byron Nelson, followed by a solo-third at the Memorial and a T11 last week in Canada. Still, while he’s eighth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in putting, he’s also 106th in driving accuracy during the three-event heater.
18. Bryson DeChambeau (+3965) 🛑: Maybe DeChambeau flips the switch, but after missing consecutive major-championship cuts while losing true strokes on approach and around the green, I’m happy to watch from outside the ropes.
19. Si Woo Kim (+3965) 🛑: The 2026 season has been kind to Kim, and he ranks sixth in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and driving accuracy, in addition to sitting seventh in adjusted scoring average. Still, he’s played 36 major championships and has a single Top-10 finish. I don’t trust his short game, and neither should you.
20. Collin Morikawa (+4801) 📉: I’m not sold on Morikawa considering his current T62-T55-T29 stretch that includes ranking 71st in this field in true strokes gained on approaches and 77th in putting. He should play well, but unless there’s a complete 180, he’s not going to threaten the top of the Sunday leaderboard.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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